As per the recent analysis of monsoon forecast data, India is expected to receive 25mm less rain than average during the upcoming monsoon season. Climate scientist Akshay Deoras from the University of Reading performed the analysis based on three climate models and calculated the average value.
El Niño likely to affect east monsoon
The analysis indicates that the continued progress of El Niño is likely to affect the southeast monsoon, with below-average rainfall forecast for many parts of India from June to September.
During El Niño years such as 2023, India typically experiences less rainfall than normal during the monsoon season. The start of the monsoon has already been delayed by a few days in Kerala, and the central and north-western parts of India, including the central monsoon regions, are forecast to receive below-average rainfall. On the contrary, during La Niña, the situation is different and the droughts tend to increase in duration and frequency.
The analysis also provides localized precipitation predictions for the next four months. Uttarakhand is expected to have the highest discrepancy, indicating the probability of below-average maximum precipitation. Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are also expected to experience below-average rainfall.
Karnataka and Tamil Nadu can expect average monsoon rainfall compared to the period 1996-2013, while above average rainfall is anticipated for Kerala, Mizoram and Manipur.
Climate scientist Akshay Deoras has highlighted that the continued progress of El Nino is expected to affect the southeast monsoon in India.
He said that El Niño’s influence on the monsoon is expected to start in June. Major climate models indicate below-average rainfall in various parts of India from June to September.
Deoras further explained the differences between monsoon patterns during El Niño and La Niña years, focusing on the current El Niño year of 2023. During El Niño, India typically experiences below-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, which runs from June to September. Kerala has already witnessed a delay of a few days in the start of the monsoon.
Consequently, many regions of the country, particularly the central and northwestern parts, including the central monsoon regions, can receive below-average rainfall during the monsoon season. These central regions are directly associated with the average seasonal precipitation in the country.
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