There could be 1.2 billion climate refugees by 2050, is world ready?

A recent report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that if the increase in global warming is not halted, by 2050 there will be 1.2 billion climate refugees.

Global warming is causing devastating effects at the environmental level and many of its effects are already irreparable. One of the great current problems is the rise in sea levels and the warming of the oceans, which has led to the loss of a large part of marine biodiversity.

In a world beset by rising temperatures, devastating storms, and flash floods, climate migration and disaster displacement are fast becoming the hallmark of the crisis of the 21st century. While hard numbers are hard to come by, conservative estimates report that up to 60 million people are forced to move annually as a result of food insecurity and disrupted livelihoods due to climate change.

While the impacts of climate change are global, the vast majority of those most affected are in the world's poorest and fastest-warming countries.

Alert to the increase in climate refugees

On the other hand, there is an exaggerated increase in the melting of glaciers. At Blogthinkbig.com we have already talked about this consequence. The glaciers in the Alps have already lost a length of two meters and Greenland is melting four times faster than in 2003.

What will be the consequences for the population?

A recent report prepared by the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that if we continue to emit harmful gases that increase global warming as up to now, By the year 2050 there will be a total of 1,000 million people affected by the warming of the seas and the melting ice.

This study, carried out by more than 100 scientists from 80 different countries, warns that if we continue with this environmental massacre and international commitments are not adopted by the governments involved, the number of climate refugees will rise exponentially since the level of the sea ​​will rise about a meter.

The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement established a roadmap to achieve zero carbon emissions. Sweeping reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, rapid transition to green energy and a green economy, and dramatic scaling up of nature-based solutions are key milestones.

The Governments need to double down on these commitments, strengthen the Convention on Biodiversity, which will be reviewed in Montreal in December, and back their promises with aid and funding. These initiatives will help mitigate the crisis, but much more must be done on the ground to cushion the effects of climate migration and disaster displacement.

Temperature rise

The scientific community has calculated that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions will cause a rise in temperatures throughout this century of between 1.8ºC and 3.0ºC. This significant evolution of the average temperature of the planet will cause inevitable floods and catastrophic famines that will affect millions of people.

As The Guardian recalls, the Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change or IPCC estimates that by 2080 a third of the planet's population, around 2.3 billion people, will not have enough water to meet their needs and that 600 million people will have no food to put in their mouths.

With global temperatures set to rise more in the next 50 years than in the previous 6,000, scientists agree that the worst is yet to come. Today, just one per cent of the planet lies within so-called “barely habitable” hot spots: by 2050, that proportion could rise to almost twenty per cent.

Most badly affected regions

By 2100, temperatures could get so hot that spending a few hours outside some major capitals in South and East Asia could be deadly. Sea level rise has already submerged eight islands in the western Pacific, and another 50 are expected to disappear by 2100. This explains why islanders from Kiribati to New Zealand are the first peoples to apply for climate refugee status.

Among the most badly affected regions are the Greater Horn of Africa, especially Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya, where over 30 million people already face food insecurity, with one person likely to die of hunger every 36 seconds in 2022.

In the future, says the report, climate change will accelerate these migratory movements, and for this reason it asks governments for "urgent action" to allow them to adopt severe prevention measures.

Christian Aid details what the process will be like: 645 million displaced people due to large projects (currently this activity generates 15 million displaced people each year), 250 million directly linked to climate change and its consequences (such as floods, droughts, famines) and 50 million more due to armed conflicts and violations of human rights.

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