Scraping Indus Water Treaty; a water bomb waiting to explode?

As the world faces the consequences of climate change and global warming, India is no different. The effects are visible across the country and the situation in the upper reaches is no different. The Himalayas are equally facing the brunt of the rising temperatures and a new study indicates that the glaciers that feed several rivers in the country could disappear by the end of this century.

India and Nepal are highly dependent on these glacier-fed rivers with over a billion people living on their banks. The intense melting of these glaciers could lead to rise in water levels, submerging several regions in the country. New satellite data has allowed researchers to measure changes in the volume of ice masses over a period of 40 years.

Kashmiri citizens on both sides of the border – on the Line of Control, as it is known – are caught in the middle of this water conflict. For more than 63 years, the Indus Water Treaty has prevented India and Pakistan from going to war over Himalayan rivers.

The agreement gave India exclusive use of the three eastern tributary rivers of the Indus (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej), and gave Pakistan exclusive rights to the three western tributaries (Indo, Jhelum and Chenab).

The treaty has prevented the development and construction of hydroelectric or irrigation projects in Kashmir itself. 

It also sets limits on how much Kashmiri land can receive irrigation water and sets strict rules on how and where it can be stored, making hydroelectric projects on the Chenab River - such as the Baglihar Dam - difficult to implement.

1960 Indus Water Treaty

The Indus Waters Treaty was signed by the two fledgling rival nations in 1960 after the independence and partition of the two countries. The treaty governs the distribution and use of the waters of the Indus River and its multiple tributaries. The treaty was signed by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President and Marshal Ayub Khan.

The Indus River begins its journey in the upper Himalayan ranges, with some glaciers also located in Tibet, although most of the water enters the system in the states of Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir.

The waters then flow through Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and the Pakistani provinces of Punjab and Sindh. The Indus river system contributes a total of 113 million acre-feet (MAF) through six of its major rivers – the Beas, Ravi, Sutlej, Indus, Chenab and Jhelum.

The treaty stipulates that the water of the "eastern rivers" - Beas, Ravi and Sutlej with 33 MAF - would be "controlled" by India while the "western rivers" - Indus, Chenab and Jhelum with 80 MAF - would be "controlled by Pakistan".

India is also able to utilize western rivers for power generation, navigation, property floating and fish farming in a non-consumptive manner.

Although a water-sharing treaty was drawn up in 1960, its provisions are beginning to give way in the face of the growing population of both countries and the consequences of climate change. 

Shortly before Pakistan troops entered the Kargil War, a then-unknown Pakistani general named Pervez Musharraf wrote in his doctoral thesis for the Royal College of Defense Studies in London that the distribution of Kashmir water between India and Pakistan "Was the seed of a future conflict.

Water, at the center of the problem

Because water is indispensable to both, many experts fear that one day the dispute over the Indus—already a constant source of diplomatic skirmishes—will push these nuclear-capable countries into all-out war.

Peter Gleick, an expert at the Pacific Institute said that conflicts over lack of water have increased in number in various parts of the world. However, Kashmir could be one of the most dangerous cases. 

According to a recent United Nations report, Pakistan's water resources have fallen from 5,000 cubic meters per person in the 1950s to 1,420 today, a figure that is dangerously close to the threshold at which water scarcity becomes an impediment to economic development and a danger to the health of the population.

India, with 1,750 cubic meters per person, is not in better shape either. And the huge population of both nations continues to grow. In addition, as much of the water comes from the glaciers -in the disappearance- of the Himalayas, they are countries that are very vulnerable to climate change.

"We already have evidence that climate changes water availability and quality," explains Gleick. "Kashmir is a place where water is perhaps not the worst problem, but like Sudan, or the Tigris, Euphrates or Nile rivers, it is a growing factor of concern in an already conflict-ridden situation," he adds.

Climate change

Climate Change threatens Kashmir. In a 2012 interview, Kashmiri Scientist Dr Nazir Ahmad Masood said that "almost 1 lakh cubic feet of timber is smuggled from the Kashmir Valley every year, leading to the illegal felling of almost 10,000 adult coniferous trees in the Kashmir Valley, which could turn Kashmir into Ladakh in the next 40-50 years".

"Climate change indicators are quite loud and clear in the region and have impacted the snow and glacier resources in the upper Indus," said glaciologist and author of several studies on glaciers in the Himalayan region and vice-chancellor of the Islamic University of Science and Technology in Kashmir Shakil Ahmad Romshoo.

The Indus supports about 90 per cent of Pakistan's agriculture. Scientists say a number of Glaciers in the area are rapidly receding due to climate change.

The large-scale human intervention in the form of unorganised pilgrimages and mindless tourism too is upping the temperatures, resulting in the fast melting of glaciers.

"The Stream flows emanating from the region have significantly decreased. It is pertinent to mention here that the IWT (Indus Water Treaty) did not have any clause on climate change impacts on stream flows", Romshoo says.

Mismanagement of existing water

India’s approach to managing its existing water resources has often been marked by poor planning and execution. The proposed interlinking of rivers (ILR) projects, meant to transfer water from surplus to deficit regions, has raised major concerns. Rather than solving water issues, these projects can increase tension between India and its neighbors, especially Pakistan, as they affect shared rivers like the Indus.

Rising global temperatures are melting glaciers faster, leading to unpredictable river flows. At the same time, India has built a large number of dams in the fragile Himalayan region, which some experts describe as "water bombs" — a term used by a glaciologist quoted in The Economist. These dams pose serious risks, especially in earthquake-prone zones like the upper Indus Basin, and highlight the urgent need to revisit the Indus Waters Treaty.

A leading water expert who worked with the World Bank on a report about Indian dams says that 15 major dams in the Himalayas are highly questionable. He refers to them as “dodgy dams” that should never have been approved.

Only two of the 15 dams under study met basic safety standards, and even those were not earthquake-proof. The remaining 13 were poorly designed and should never have been built, according to the expert. He also revealed that the World Bank’s internal survey found widespread corruption in the dam-building process in India, but the findings were never officially published.

A UK-based expert familiar with the report said, “The entire system of dam construction is deeply flawed. There’s a lack of transparency, accountability, and proper environmental checks. These structures are not just unsafe, they are dangerous in such a sensitive ecological zone.”

Beyond politics

Pakistan faces serious risks due to its high dependence on the Indus River. Nearly 70% of the country’s GDP relies on the Indus basin. Its major exports — including Basmati rice, cotton, and textiles — depend entirely on the water that flows through this lifeline. As climate change intensifies, Islamabad cannot afford to ignore the environmental challenges that threaten its economy and food security.

Experts warn that climate change is not just melting glaciers but also shifting rainfall patterns and increasing the frequency of floods and droughts. These changes directly affect the flow of the Indus and its tributaries. Several studies show that snow and glacier melt now contribute more than ever to river flow during summer, making water supply less predictable in the long term.

“Pakistan must act quickly and shift focus from politics to science,” said Shakil Romshoo, a leading glaciologist and vice-chancellor of the Islamic University of Science and Technology in Kashmir. Romshoo has authored several studies on Himalayan glaciers and water systems.

“Based on current scientific knowledge, revision of the treaty should be considered to include the new challenges affecting water availability and distribution,” he said.

Romshoo stressed the need for both India and Pakistan to work together using updated hydrological data, climate models, and ground-level studies. “The treaty was signed in 1960 when we didn’t have today’s understanding of climate change. Ignoring this new knowledge puts millions of people at risk,” he added.

Researchers have also highlighted that the original Indus Waters Treaty does not cover key issues such as glacier retreat, sediment load, and groundwater depletion — all of which are worsening due to climate stress. Experts believe that if the two countries fail to update the treaty, they risk facing greater water insecurity in the future.

Increased water stress

In June 2015, NASA ranked the Indus Basin as the second most stressed aquifer in the world. They said the depletion of groundwater in the Indus Basin could worsen the subcontinent's water crisis.

Many communities in the Indus Basin face water scarcity under current patterns of use and storage. According to NASA, the Indus Basin is the second most overloaded aquifer in the world (Buis & Wilson, 2015).

Unlike India, Pakistan relies almost exclusively on the Indus, with southern downstream areas especially vulnerable to stresses on the basin's water supply.

Aggravating effect of climate change

Although water scarcity in the Indus Basin is often attributed to poor water management, climate change also plays a role.

The Himalayan glaciers, which feed the Indus Basin, are projected to shrink further in the coming years. This may increase water flow in the short term, but will also deplete groundwater recharge in the long term, thus reducing available water resources.

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