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City traffic on the street, motorcycles under the rain, night time at Connaught Place, New Delhi, India Photograph: (Vyacheslav Argenberg/Wikimedia Commons)
Madhya Pradesh has been experiencing rainy weather for two days, causing significant temperature changes. Following light showers in Neemuch and a storm in Gwalior-Chambal on Tuesday, the Meteorological Department forecasted a further dip in temperature by 2 to 3 degrees from Wednesday. Bhopal, Indore, and Ujjain are expected to be cooler, while Gwalior-Chambal will likely remain cloudy.
Weather conditions and temperature variations
On Tuesday, multiple districts, including Gwalior, Mandsaur, Neemuch, Bhind, Datia, Morena, and Sheopur, experienced thunderstorms, leading to a notable decline in daytime temperatures. Despite this, areas like Mandla recorded 34.7°C, Seoni 33.4°C, Jabalpur 33.3°C, and Damoh 33°C. Meanwhile, Bhopal registered 31.7°C, Indore 30.6°C, Ujjain 30°C, and Gwalior saw the lowest at 26.1°C.
Meteorologists predict cold will persist mainly during early morning and nighttime, while days will be sunny. However, a Western Disturbance is expected on February 8, potentially leading to increased cloud cover and rain from February 12 to 14. After February 20, winter effects are expected to wane, allowing temperatures to rise.
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February 5: A 2-3 degree temperature drop is anticipated, with cloudy skies over Gwalior-Chambal.
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February 6: Sunny weather is expected during the day, with mild cold conditions at night.
An analysis of the last 10 years suggests that February in Madhya Pradesh features cold nights and warm days, with sporadic rainfall. The temperature patterns of major cities reflect these trends:
| City | Coldest Night (°C) | Typical Day Temperature (°C) | Rainfall Trend | Notable Weather Facts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhopal | 1.7°C (Feb 11, 1950) | Often above 35°C | Rare, only 3 times in last decade | Nights remain cold, often below 10°C |
| Indore | 2.8°C (Feb 1, 1929) | Above 32°C, sometimes reaching 35°C | Very rare | February rarely sees rain |
| Gwalior | 0.3°C (Feb 7, 1974) | Generally cold | Infrequent | Cold due to northern winds; often below 3°C at night |
| Jabalpur | 0°C (Feb 2, 1905) | Above 30°C after mid-February | Frequent in past years | Record 131.7 mm rainfall in a single day (1987) |
| Ujjain | 1°C (Feb 1, 2008) | Often above 30°C | Mixed trend | Experiences heat, rain, and cold |
Severe early winter
This winter has been harsh, with November and December experiencing record-breaking cold. In Bhopal, temperatures dipped 7°C below normal, marking the coldest December in 58 years. The state faced a cold wave for nine consecutive days, leading to changes in school schedules and special arrangements like heaters in Bhopal’s Van Vihar National Park to protect wildlife.
January had fluctuating cold spells, but no severe weather. The lack of strong Western Disturbance activity prevented extreme rainfall or hailstorms, which are usually common in January.
Meteorologists predict that February will have cold mornings and nights, but the approaching Western Disturbance could bring more mid-month rainfall. After February 20, a gradual warming trend will begin, leading into early summer. Residents should stay updated with weather forecasts and take precautions against sudden temperature changes.
As Madhya Pradesh transitions from winter to spring, it remains to be seen how the weather patterns unfold in the coming weeks.
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