India's June rainfall: 10-year trend shows 32% reduction from normal

The monsoon season has arrived in India, but farmers are still waiting for rain. Of the 718 districts in the country, 511 districts, which add up to 71%, have presented a rainfall deficit during the month of June. Amazingly 38 districts have not received rain at all, and 28 of these districts are from Uttar Pradesh.

According to the India Meteorological Department, there have been ten years in the past two decades when June saw below-normal rainfall. In 2009, 2012, 2014, and 2019, precipitation was significantly less than average. With the exception of 2019 and 2012, the remaining years experienced weak El Niño conditions.

IMD data reveals that 347 districts have recorded large poor rainfall while 126 districts have recorded poor rainfall. The IMD classifies precipitation as great excess when it exceeds 60%, excess when it ranges from 20% to 59%, and normal when it is within 19% of the average. Large deficits are classified as a rainfall deficit of -59% to -20%, and severe deficits range from -99% to -60%.

Since the start of the monsoon on June 8, only 85 districts, about 5% of the total, have received normal rainfall based on available data up to June 20. The country has received 61.9mm of rain as of June 21, 33% below the average rainfall for the normal period of 92.8mm from June 1 to June 21. Last year, in June, the country experienced a rainfall deficit of 8% compared to the normal average of 165.3mm.

Rainfall data year-wise

Experts suggest that the monsoon may intensify in the next week from June 23 to 29, providing relief for agricultural activities. The southern and eastern regions of India are expected to receive normal rains in June, and rainfall may increase in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Odisha and Maharashtra.

The IMD is closely monitoring the drought situation and will issue warnings to farmers when necessary. If there is a shortage of rain in June, this year will be added to the list of the worst June months in the last 20 years, along with 2009 and 2014, which were similarly dry.

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