Hurricanes are now twice as likely to be catastrophic

Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely to intensify rapidly due to sea surface warming, according to the paper, “Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates” published Thursday in Scientific Reports.

Climate Change: A Catalyst for Intensifying Hurricanes

This climate change effect is causing minor hurricanes to evolve into stronger and potentially devastating events. For instance, in August, Hurricane Lee escalated from a category 1 event with winds of 129 kilometers per hour to a category 5 with winds of 249 kilometers per hour in less than 24 hours.

This rapid intensification, defined as a hurricane’s winds increasing 56 kilometers per hour in one day, is occurring more frequently.

The study analyzed 830 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean since 1971 and found that in the last 20 years, storms escalated from Category 1 to a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) within 24 hours, 8.1% of the time. This is a significant increase from the 3.2% recorded between 1971 and 1990.

Overall, Dr. Andra Garner, assistant professor in the Department of Environmental Science at Rowan University in New Jersey explained that the fastest average pace at which hurricanes strengthen has indeed significantly increased by more than 25% from 1971-1990 to 2001-2020. Also, during 2001-2020, the likelihood of hurricanes intensifying by more than 57 mph in just 24 hours was about equivalent to the likelihood of hurricanes intensifying by the same amount in 36 hours during the historical era.

Such rapid intensification poses challenges for timely response from populations and authorities. Andra Garner, a climate scientist at Rowan University in New Jersey and an author of the study, explained that this unpredictability can lead to more destructive storms.

Garner further explained that “90% of the excess warming that humans have caused on the planet has ended up in our oceans.” In fact, the sea surface recorded a monthly average of 20.98 °C in August this year, setting a new record according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Climate change behind catastrophic hurricanes

Scientists have issued a warning that 2023 is on track to become the hottest year in recorded history. The global temperature from January to September 2023 is 0.52°C higher than the average for the same period from 1991-2020. It’s also 0.05°C warmer than the average for the first nine months of 2016, which currently holds the record for the hottest calendar year.

Research conducted by Garner found that rapid hurricane intensification primarily occurs along the Atlantic coast of the U.S. East Coast, rather than in the Gulf of Mexico. From 2012 to 2022, over 160 weather and climate disasters impacted the U.S., with 24 of these events being tropical cyclones.

These cyclones included the six costliest disasters recorded in the country during this period. Many of these hurricanes were particularly damaging due to their rapid intensification.

Another study found that storms are responsible for more than 64% of climate change damage worldwide. The researchers analyzed 185 natural disasters that occurred between 2000 and 2019 and were more likely due to the climate crisis. The study, published in Nature Communications, reports an average of $140 billion per year in damages.

Garner warns, “If we don’t work to reduce our (carbon) emissions, then that’s a trend that we could probably expect to continue in the future” and even worsen.

The research underscores the importance of enhanced coastal resiliency measures and emergency action plans that can adapt to hurricanes that strengthen more quickly. As we are likely already seeing an increased risk of hazards for our coastal communities, these measures are especially important for those in North Carolina and other areas along the U.S. Atlantic Coast.

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