How melting Arctic ice is changing winter weather?

In a recent study conducted by researchers from Korea and the USA, the correlation between a warmer Arctic and extreme winter weather in midlatitude regions has been established, but the impact of global warming on this link is unclear.

The broader impact of a warmer Arctic

The study utilized climate models and weather data to reveal that while the "Warm Arctic-Cold Continent" trend will persist as the climate continues to warm, Arctic warming will become a less dependable indicator of severe winter weather in the future.

The melting glaciers and stranded polar bears on shrinking sea ice in the Arctic have become iconic symbols of global warming. However, these images do not fully capture the broader impact of a warmer Arctic.

Professor Jin-Ho Yoon from Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), Korea said that in recent years, scientists have increasingly recognized the role of the Arctic in driving extreme weather events in other parts of the world. Despite the fact that the Arctic has been warming at twice the rate of the global average, midlatitude regions have experienced harsher and colder winters.

For example, the winter of 2022-2023 witnessed record-breaking cold temperatures and snowfall in Japan, China, and Korea. Similarly, many areas of Eurasia and North America have suffered through severe cold snaps, marked by heavy snowfall and prolonged periods of sub-zero temperatures.

WACC pattern and winter weather correlation

Although various explanations have been proposed for the occurrence of severe winter weather events in the Northern Hemisphere, a team of international researchers, led by Professor Jin-Ho Yoon sought to investigate the correlation between these events and the melting sea ice in the Arctic region, known as the "Warm Arctic-Cold Continent" (WACC) pattern.

Specifically, the researchers aimed to determine how this relationship had been affected by the ongoing warming of the climate.

The team's findings were recently published online on 27 March 2023 in the journal npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.

To investigate the potential connection between the WACC pattern and severe winter weather events, the researchers analyzed historical climate data and used climate projection models. They also examined how this phenomenon might be affected by various global warming scenarios.

Correlation found between winter temperatures

To establish a correlation between winter temperatures in East Asia and North America and temperatures in the Barents-Kara Sea and East Siberian-Chukchi Sea regions of the Arctic, the researchers examined climate data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) spanning nearly four decades.

Their analysis revealed that lower winter temperatures in East Asia and North America tend to coincide with warmer temperatures in the Arctic Sea.

However, the researchers also found that this relationship does not hold true in certain winters, such as the 2017/18 winter in East Asia. This suggests that factors other than Arctic Sea temperatures may be contributing to the variability of this linkage.

Arctic-Midlatitude link will persist, but uncertain

The study's findings suggest that the "Warm Arctic-Cold Continent" pattern will continue in the future despite global warming, but Arctic warming will become a less reliable predictor of extreme winter weather events in midlatitude regions.

The researchers emphasize the importance of further research to understand the complex interactions between the Arctic and midlatitude regions and to improve our ability to predict extreme weather events.

Prof. Jin-Ho Yoon suggests that although the link between Arctic warming and cold weather events in midlatitude regions will continue to exist in a warmer climate, it may become more complex to predict due to the increasing uncertainty in the relationship between Arctic warming and winter temperatures in the midlatitude regions.

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