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Warm January days leave us wondering: is winter over?

January 2025 has seen unusually high temperatures across Northwest and Central India, raising questions about the end of winter. Climate change is shortening winter, affecting agriculture, energy consumption, and water resources.

By Ground Report Desk
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January 2025 has started surprisingly, with temperatures in Northwest and Central India rising above 26 degrees Celsius. The expected winter chill is absent, replaced by bright sunshine and dry westerly winds, leading to a 'disappearing spring.'

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According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Delhi recorded a minimum temperature of 9.3 degrees Celsius on January 23, slightly higher than the usual average for this period. A strong western disturbance contributed to this unusual weather, making the peak winter period the mildest in nine years. There were no recorded ‘cold day’ or ‘cold wave’ conditions since 2017-18.

Has winter already faded away?

Delhi’s peak winter period, from December 27 to January 20, usually sees normal maximum temperatures below 20°C and minimums under 7°C. However, this season, the average minimum temperature was 9°C—two degrees above normal and the highest since the 2015-16 winter.

Despite mild nights, overcast and foggy conditions made the days feel colder. The average maximum temperature was 18.6°C, one degree below normal. However, a sudden rise in temperatures occurred on January 19, with a jump of 5.5 degrees to over 25°C. This change has led many to speculate whether winter is ending.

Despite these unusual conditions, meteorologists caution against assuming that winter is over. IMD Chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated the January 19 temperature spike was due to a change in wind directionto southwesterly, which typically warms the northern plains. After the wet spell on January 22-23, a shift to chillier northerly winds is expected, leading to a temperature drop from January 24.

This winter contrasts sharply with last year’s five ‘cold days’ and five ‘cold wave’ days, the highest since 2012-13. The lowest temperature this season was 4.5°C on December 12 and 16, the highest minimum in 15 years.

A slight drop in temperatures is anticipated, but extreme cold remains unlikely according to IMD forecasts. Rainfall is expected for Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh, Delhi-NCR, and northern Rajasthan on January 22 and 23. Dense fog is expected in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Odisha.

Above-normal temps in Northwest India

IMD reports indicate that in the past 24 hours, minimum temperatures were “markedly above normal” (5°C or more) in parts of East Madhya Pradesh and East RajasthanOther regions, including the Indo-Gangetic plains, Central and West India, and parts of Assam and Meghalaya, have reported significantly higher temperatures. The lowest minimum temperature in the plains was recorded in Amritsar at 6.1°C.

Meteorologists predict a slight drop in temperatures this weekend. A cyclonic circulation over southwest Madhya Pradesh and a western disturbance might bring rain or snow to the Western Himalayas. As the western disturbance moves away, a temperature dip is expected from January 24 morning.

Climate change and disappearing spring

A key reason for these changes is climate change. Recently, winter has shortened, and spring is nearly gone. Instead of a gradual transition from winter to summer, temperatures are rising abruptly, making February feel like March.

Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather explains that dry westerly winds in January have reduced moisture levels, leading to clearer skies and a lower probability of severe fog.

He added “Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand received less snow than usual, causing a delayed winter to end early. Previously, icy winds from the hills kept the northern plains cold throughout January and February, but this trend is weakening”.

Historically, winter transitioned into a pleasant spring before scorching summers and monsoons from June to September. However, recent data suggests that India’s winter days are decreasing, and the usual pleasantness of February-March spring is diminishing.

Recent Decembers lacked traditional winter characteristics. Delayed January cooling is now followed by rapid February warming in northern, western, and central India, including Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Ladakh, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Warmest year on record: What’s next?

India had its warmest year on record in 2024, with the annual mean land surface air temperature 0.65°C above the long-term average. IMD reported a 2024 mean temperature of 25.75°C, the highest since 1901. The average maximum temperature was 31.25°C, the fourth-highest on record.

The IMD forecasts higher-than-usual minimum temperatures across most of India in January, except for parts of eastern, northwest, and west-central regions. Maximum or day temperatures are also expected to exceed normal levels in most parts, with exceptions in northwest, central, and eastern India and parts of the southern peninsula.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted long-term data shows an increasing trend in minimum temperatures, especially in post-monsoon and winter seasons. This suggests India's climate is shifting towards warmer winters and shorter transitional seasons.

The rising January temperatures and lack of severe winter conditions highlight the growing impact of climate change. The quick transition from winter to summer raises concerns about water availability, agriculture, and overall climatic stability in the region.

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