India experiences hottest October since 1901, IMD predicts warm Nov

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that October 2024 was the hottest in India since 1901, with an average temperature of 26.92°C, significantly higher than the long-term average of 25.69°C, marking a deviation of 1.23°C above normal. The minimum temperature was also above average at 21.85°C, compared to the usual 20.01°C.

IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra attributed the unusual heat to specific meteorological patterns. He noted the absence of western disturbances, which typically bring cooler air into northwestern India. “North-westerly winds are needed to lower the temperature in north-western India. Monsoon flow has also been observed, preventing a temperature drop,” Mahapatra explained during a press conference.

This year, the usual Diwali cooling period, when temperatures drop and people bring out warm clothing, failed to occur. Despite Diwali passing two days ago, large parts of the country still experience higher-than-normal temperatures. The IMD confirmed no immediate signs of significant cooling throughout November, with Mahapatra emphasizing November isn’t considered a winter month in meteorological terms.

Warm November expected

The IMD’s forecast suggests above-average temperatures in most of India in November. “We (IMD) do not forecast the onset of winter, and we do not consider November as winter,” Mahapatra said. Instead, the department focuses on the December to February period as the official winter season, with forecasts for these months expected later.

Northwestern plains are projected to maintain temperatures 2-5 degrees above normal for the next two weeks, followed by a gradual decline. Above-normal maximum temperatures are expected in northeast and east-central India, and parts of northwest and Peninsular India. Conversely, west-central India and adjacent north peninsular regions may experience average or below-average temperatures.

Most areas to get rain

The IMD's November 2024 rainfall forecast indicates most of the country will receive normal to above-normal rainfall, ranging from 77 to 123 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). However, northwest India and some central areas are expected to see below-normal rainfall.

The southern peninsular region is set to experience wet conditions. “Monthly rainfall over South Peninsular India consisting of five meteorological subdivisions (Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe, and South Interior Karnataka) is likely to be above normal (over 123 percent of Long Period Average),” the IMD stated. This is due to the northeast monsoon, which impacts these areas during this time.

La Niña may affect winter weather soon

The IMD noted neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean haven’t significantly influenced India’s weather. However, Mahapatra pointed out that “the latest global model forecasts indicate a higher chance of La Niña conditions developing during November-December 2024.” Such a shift could bring subtle changes to weather patterns as winter progresses. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate phenomenon influencing Indian weather, remains neutral and is expected to continue in this state.

Despite public anticipation of cooler weather after Diwali, Mahapatra clarified that November won’t see the onset of winter. “The weather office does not count November as a winter month. We only begin counting from December through February,” he stated. January and February are the peak winter months, while December marks the transition into colder conditions.

With warmer-than-usual conditions persisting and varying rainfall patterns, the IMD urges residents to prepare for continued warm weather through November. Only in December will cooler temperatures signal the true start of winter.