El Niño shifts rainfall, impacting crop production: 110 million at risk

The ongoing El Niño event is reshaping global precipitation patterns, leading to implications for agricultural production. This shift in rainfall - excessive in some regions and insufficient in others - is anticipated to impact crop production, leaving an estimated 110 million individuals requiring food aid, as per scientific predictions.

The accompanying map, created by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), illustrates the anticipated influence of El Niño on key crops such as wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, and sorghum. This map is derived from a study of historical crop yield and climate data spanning from 1961 to 2020.

The research team included scientists from NASA Harvest and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, NOAA, the University of Maryland, and the Center of Climate Risks at the University of California.

Forecasters predict that this year's El Niño event will continue gaining strength through the end of 2023 before dissipating by mid-2024. They expect it to contribute to high levels of food insecurity in certain regions. The FEWS NET partners developed the map above to show the projected impact of El Niño on key commodity crops, such as wheat, maize (corn), rice, soybean, and sorghum.

They based the map on an analysis of historical crop yields and climate data from 1961 to 2020. Scientists from NASA Harvest and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, NOAA, the University of Maryland, and the University of California Santa Barbara’s Climate Hazards Center contributed to the map's development.

"Weston Anderson, an assistant research scientist with the FEWS NET science team, estimates that El Niño events affect crop yields on at least a quarter of global croplands. He explained, "Although we're uncertain about how this year's crop yields will be impacted because they vary from one El Niño event to another, we understand the odds.""

A quarter of world's crops affected

"Weston Anderson, an assistant research scientist on the team, said in a NASA Earth Observatory statement that we estimate El Niño events affect crop yields on at least a quarter of the world's cropland," said the FEWS NET scientist. "Although we are uncertain about how this year's crop yields will vary due to the varying effects of each El Niño event, we are aware of the starting conditions," he added.

Anderson and colleagues' analysis of historical crop yields suggests that El Niño is likely to cause low corn yields in southern Africa and Central America due to drought. Similarly, wheat yields in Australia and rice yields in Southeast Asia also tend to be low.

On the other hand, global soybean yields increase during an El Niño event. They also predict that the Horn of Africa and Afghanistan will experience above-average rainfall, which should facilitate a gradual recovery from three-year droughts across these regions.

FEWS NET food security analysts develop scenarios depicting the impact of regional rainfall deficits or surpluses on crop yields, which in turn affects food security. They use this information to help the U.S. Food and Agriculture Organization International Development (USAID) understand humanitarian and food assistance needs. Their work is particularly crucial in regions where many people rely on their own crops to fulfill their daily needs.

FEWS NET identified this as the case for some countries in southern Africa, considering it a region of high concern. Typically, El Niño has its strongest negative impacts in southeastern parts of Africa, such as Zimbabwe, southern Zambia, southern and central Mozambique, and northeastern South Africa.

In recent years with moderate to strong El Niño, below-normal precipitation and above-average daytime temperatures have often affected these areas during key months of the growing season.

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