A recent study shows climate change has caused pre-monsoon weather activities to begin early in certain parts of India, including north Karnataka. This has led to moderate to widespread rainfall from March 13 to 18, which is expected to cause crop damage.
Already, the unseasonal rain and thundershowers that occurred between March 6 and 8 have resulted in significant crop damage in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra due to strong winds and hailstorms.
Meteorologists predict another prolonged spell of pre-monsoon rain and thundershowers, along with thunderstorms, hailstorms, and lightning strikes, which could potentially harm crops across multiple regions of India.
This upcoming weather activity will be the result of several weather systems interacting, and climate models suggest the formation of twin cyclonic circulations over east Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh.
Climate Trends has reported that the combination of twin cyclonic circulations, western disturbance, and moisture from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are expected to cause widespread weather activity over central, eastern, and southern parts of India from March 13 to 18.
While northern regions will be spared, South Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and North Karnataka will experience thunderstorms and lightning strikes.
The early onset of pre-monsoon showers is primarily attributed to climate change, which was recently reflected in February being the warmest month since record-keeping began in 1901. As temperatures rise, there is a corresponding increase in convective activity, resulting in early pre-monsoon showers.
Mahesh Palawat, the vice president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet Weather, has remarked that these weather activities have occurred earlier than usual, as pre-monsoon activities usually start during the second half of March.
Additionally, while rainfall activities during this season typically occur in the early morning or late afternoon, prolonged spells are rare. However, abnormal temperatures this season have triggered multiple weather systems across various parts of the country.
climate change impact
The phenomenon of early pre-monsoon showers due to climate change has been studied extensively by climate scientists in recent years.
The monsoon season in many parts of the world, particularly in South Asia, is characterized by a long dry spell followed by heavy rains that last for several months. However, in recent years, there has been a shift in the timing and intensity of pre-monsoon showers.
Studies have shown that rising global temperatures due to climate change are leading to a faster warming of land surfaces, which in turn is causing early onset of pre-monsoon showers. This trend has been observed in many parts of South Asia, including India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, where early pre-monsoon showers have become more common in recent years.
The impact of this shift in the timing of pre-monsoon showers can have significant implications for agriculture, water management, and infrastructure planning in these regions. Early rainfall can cause flooding and landslides, while delayed rainfall can lead to drought and crop failures.
Overall, the study of early pre-monsoon showers due to climate change highlights the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation measures to address the impact of climate change on vulnerable regions and communities.
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