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A recent announcement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño is likely to develop this summer, a recurring weather pattern that can cause widespread disruption of marine ecosystems and impact global weather events.
In its April 2023 weather outlook assessment, NOAA had issued an El Niño Watch, indicating that weather conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño in the next six months.
Currently, weather conditions are neutral following a prolonged La Niña period, which is characterized by worsening drought and more severe hurricanes.
Climate scientists had previously estimated a 60% chance that El Niño would emerge for the fall season when La Niña ended in early March.
El Niño Likely to Develop
The climate prediction center has revised its estimate slightly, stating that there is now a 62% chance of El Niño developing between May and July, up from the previous estimate of 60% for the fall season.
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Scientists have analyzed several environmental factors over the past month, including above-average sea surface temperatures and low-level winds in the Pacific Ocean, to suggest that a transition from a neutral phase to El Niño will likely occur from June to August and will continue in winter.
ENSO is defined by sea surface temperatures and precipitation levels in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that deviate from the neutral norm, and El Niño represents the "warm phase" of the cycle, characterized by rising ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and increased precipitation, according to NOAA.
The phrase "associated with" implies that not all of the impacts mentioned occur during every El Niño event. However, these impacts occur more frequently during El Niño events than would be expected by chance, and many of them have occurred during multiple El Niño events.
El Niño and Hurricane Forecasts
Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center, NOAA issues an "El Niño watch" when there is a chance of an El Niño within the next six months. The occurrence of La Niña, El Niño, or neither is determined by sea surface temperatures near the equator over the Pacific Ocean.
The temperature of the water and the air above it can cause the jet stream to change position, affecting the types of weather that occur on land.
According to the latest forecast from Colorado State University (CSU), the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have slightly below-average activity.
The forecast calls for 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, compared to the annual average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The official Atlantic hurricane season, which is part of NOAA, runs from June 1 to November 30 of each year.
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