We have surpassed the 1.5⁰C temp threshold during the month of June

Following the recent announcement of the onset of El Niño and record sea surface temperatures last month, the first eleven days of this month saw the highest temperatures ever recorded for this time of year. This marks the first time that global surface air temperatures exceeded the pre-industrial level by more than 1.5°C during the month of June.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) monitors how often daily global temperatures have exceeded this limit, given that it is a good indicator of how fast we are approaching the 1.5⁰C threshold set in the Paris Agreement.

1.5°C limit exceeded in June

In a statement issued to Ground Report, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) in statement said that despite being the first time this limit has been surpassed in June, this is not the first time that the daily global average temperature rise has been above the 1.5⁰C level. This threshold was first exceeded during December 2015, and exceeded repeatedly in the winters and springs of 2016 and 2020.

It is important to note that the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement is based in changes in twenty or thirty yearly averages, rather than brief periods like days or months.

Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), stresses the importance of monitoring our climate in light of these developments. She points out that every fraction of a degree is important in mitigating the dire consequences of the climate crisis, and calls for greater attention to understanding the frequency and duration of temperature increases exceeding 1.5°C.

Hhighest ever recorded for early June

Global mean surface air temperatures for the first few days of June 2023 were the highest ever recorded for early June, exceeding previous records by a significant margin. This occurred after a month of May with unprecedented sea surface temperatures for that time of year.

A report from the World Meteorological Organization also indicated a 66% probability that the annual average global temperature for the years 2023-2027 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. So, did the global average temperature really rise by more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 level in early June? Let's dive into the ERA5 numbers and their calculations for a closer look.

In December 2015, the Paris Agreement was adopted, whose objective is to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Coincidentally, during that time, there was a strong El Niño event near its peak, and it is now estimated that for a few days, the global mean temperature exceeded the 1.5°C threshold. This was probably the first occurrence of such an event in the industrial age.

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