Unstoppable 1.5°C warming poses global threat: World Bank report

A recent climate study commissioned by the World Bank Group, the world’s atmosphere is already on track for a 1.5°C temperature increase due to past and projected greenhouse gas emissions, posing a significant threat to global lives and livelihoods.

Global warming is inevitable

The “Turn Down the Heat” report investigates the escalating risks of climate change to three regions: Latin America and the Caribbean, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa. The report reveals that a near 1.5°C warming above pre-industrial levels, up from today’s 0.8°C, is already inevitable due to past and anticipated greenhouse gas emissions.

This warming will affect everyone, especially people with low income, as extreme weather events become more frequent and threats to food, water, and energy security intensify. In South America’s Andes and Central Asia’s mountains, glaciers are shrinking.

As temperatures continue to rise, the resulting meltwater will bring more water to agricultural lands and cities earlier in the growing season, increasing the risk of destructive floods. However, within a few decades, these areas will face drought risks. If no action is taken to halt climate change, most of the Andean glaciers and two-thirds of Central Asia’s glaciers could disappear by the end of the century.

These changes are already happening, with global temperatures 0.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, and the effects on food security, water supplies, and livelihoods are just beginning.

Warming inevitable, urgent emission cuts

The report explores the impact of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It finds that warming of nearly 1.5°C above pre-industrial times is already inevitable due to past and projected greenhouse gas emissions. Without concerted efforts to reduce emissions, the planet is on track for 2°C warming by mid-century and 4°C or more by the time today’s teenagers reach their 80s.

The report warns that as temperatures rise, heat extremes comparable to the heatwaves in the United States in 2012 and Russia in 2010 will become more frequent. Melting permafrost will release methane, a potent greenhouse gas, leading to more warming in a dangerous feedback loop.

Forests, including the Amazon, are also at risk. Even a world 1.5°C warmer will mean more severe droughts and global sea level rise, increasing the risk of damage from storm surges and crop loss, and raising the cost of adaptation for millions of people.

Unchecked emissions causing unavoidable global warming

“Today’s report confirms what scientists have been saying – past emissions have set an unavoidable course of warming over the next two decades, which will affect the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people the most,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. “We cannot continue down the current path of unchecked, growing emissions.”

As governments convene in Lima for the next round of climate negotiations, this report and others provide direction and evidence of the risks and the need for ambitious goals to decarbonize economies now.

“Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal” is the third in a series of reports commissioned by the World Bank Group from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics. The first report examined global risks if the world were to warm by 4°C. The second report focused on three regions – Africa, South Asia, and South East Asia – and the risks to food security, water security, and low-lying cities exposed to dangerous sea level rise and vulnerability to storms.

The new report follows strong new warnings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) about the pace of climate change and the energy transformations necessary to stay within 2°C warming.

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