Thar Desert, known as Great Indian Desert, would disappear in a century

More and more scientific evidence is being gathered on the effects of climate change on various ecosystems. A recent study focused on understanding the changes that the deserts will have, specifically the Thar, known for being the great Indian desert and the most populated in the world.

The journal Earth's Future has published this new research, which suggests that the desert could entirely disappear within the next century as climate change increases. Several studies have previously shown that the Earth's deserts will grow with global warming. For instance, it was determined that the Sahara will expand by more than 6,000 square kilometres per year by 2050. However, the opposite will happen with the Thar desert.

The research team collected weather data from South Asia over the past 50 years to reach this conclusion. They focused on understanding the changes that the rain had caused in the duration of the monsoon and where it is now concentrated.

Using this information, they then compiled historical figures on rainfall and sea surface temperatures. The team then used a climate model to see how the monsoon might continue to change in the future. They used different greenhouse gas trajectories and found that monsoon rainfall has already shifted westward, with precipitation increasing by up to 50% in some regions of the dry northwest while decreasing in parts of the wet east.

What does this mean? 

The researchers, sparing us the technical bits, note that "over the next century, the Thar could see nearly twice the amount of rain it now receives as the monsoon moves more than 500 kilometres to the west.

These models also show that the Indian Ocean has warmed and will continue to warm unevenly. This, say the researchers, means that it will warm faster in the west than in the east. 

“This imbalance will move a critical area of ​​low pressure called the intertropical convergence zone to the west and as a result affect where the monsoon rains are concentrated,” said Bhupendra Nath Goswami, a meteorologist at Cotton University.

Because of this unusual way in which the area directly affects the point at which the South Asian monsoon makes landfall, the Thar "will probably turn green by the end of the century," the meteorologist said.

Study co-author Bhupendra Nath Goswami, a meteorologist at Cotton University, says that the findings are "counterintuitive." People have normally been discussing how climate change will make the wet region wetter or the dry region drier.

Wang: Risk of heavy rain

Goswami states, "Most of the upcoming rainfall that will hit the Thar region in the next few decades will occur in bursts rather than being a consistent drizzle over several months." These heavy rain events, which deposit over 10 centimetres of water in a single day, will require the area to adapt in order to prevent yearly floods that damage crops and flatten towns.

If properly managed, the increased rainfall could become advantageous, according to Goswami. It might reinstate the weather patterns that enabled the Indus Valley Civilization, one of the earliest major cultures, to thrive more than 5000 years ago.

Goswami suggests that policymakers can establish programs to collect water in small reservoirs to enhance groundwater reserves, making the arid land more productive. This strategy could help mitigate potential agricultural losses faced by the other side of India due to climate change.

However, Shih-Yu Wang, a climate scientist at Utah State University who wasn't part of the study, emphasizes the importance of acknowledging the risks tied to heavy rainfall events.

He cites the recent devastating floods in Pakistan as an example. With the region still recovering from last year's flood that pushed over 9 million people in Pakistan into poverty, Xie notes that ongoing extreme rainfall could be cause for concern.

As the world prepares for a warmer future, Xie underscores the significance of examining these "narrow" climate transition zones like the ones in India and Pakistan. While some scientists might consider this shift in rainfall patterns minor compared to other widespread climate changes, Xie emphasizes that within these highly sensitive, densely populated regions, even a small alteration on land carries a substantial impact.

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