Record levels of carbon emissions from fossil fuels in 2023

The Global Carbon Project’s science team has unveiled alarming data showing a surge in global fossil fuel emissions in 2023, reaching unprecedented levels. The Global Carbon Budget’s annual report estimates a release of 36.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) this year, marking an increase of 1.1 billion tonnes from 2022.

Despite reductions in regions like Europe and America, the global trend is on an upward trajectory. Scientists warn that the reduction in fossil fuel usage is not happening quickly enough to halt perilous climate change.

Emissions stable, urgent climate action

Land-use changes, including deforestation, are predicted to see a slight decrease in emissions, yet they are insufficiently counterbalanced by current reforestation and afforestation efforts. The report projects a total emission of 40.0 billion tonnes of CO2 (fossil fuels and land use) for 2023, mirroring the levels of 2022 and continuing a decade-long pattern. The lack of a significant emissions decline underscores the urgency of immediate action to meet climate goals.

The research team, comprising experts from the University of Exeter, University of East Anglia (UAE), Cicero Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, and over 90 other institutions, has expressed concern over the slow pace of change.

Pierre Friedlingstein, Professor at the Global Systems Institute in Exeter and study leader, remarked, “The impacts of climate change are obvious to all of us, but the pace of action being taken to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels is worryingly slow.”

He added, “It now seems inevitable that we will breach the Paris Agreement’s target to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. At COP 28, global leaders must agree on a rapid reduction in fossil fuel emissions to maintain hope for the two-degree Celsius goal.”

Risk of surpassing 1.5°C. Uncertainties remain

The study also assesses the likelihood of exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold, estimating a 50% chance of surpassing it within approximately seven years at current emission rates. This forecast is fraught with uncertainties, particularly due to non-CO2 sources of warming, as the 1.5-degree target nears present warming levels.

Karin La Querre, Royal Society Research Professor at the UAE’s School of Environmental Sciences, stated, “The latest CO2 data shows that current efforts are not deep or broad enough to move global emissions towards net zero.” She observed emerging trends indicating the potential effectiveness of climate policies.

However, she cautioned that the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 due to current emission levels is accelerating climate change and intensifying its impacts.

To mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, La Querre emphasized the need for countries to adapt their economies to the evolving environmental landscape.

The study’s findings serve as a stark reminder of the diminishing window to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avert the most severe consequences of climate change.

Global emissions rise, regional variations

The urgency to decarbonize has never been greater, as underscored by the 2023 Global Carbon Budget’s findings. The report highlights stark regional disparities in emission trends, with India’s emissions projected to rise by 8.2% and China’s by 4.0%, while the EU, US, and the rest of the world are expected to see declines of 7.4%, 3.0%, and 0.4%, respectively. Fossil fuel emissions from coal, oil, and gas are all anticipated to increase.

Atmospheric CO2 levels are set to average 419.3 parts per million in 2023, a 51% increase over pre-industrial levels. While land and oceans absorb about half of the CO2 emissions, the remainder stays in the atmosphere, exacerbating climate change.

The year 2023 will also witness higher-than-average global CO2 emissions, partly due to Canada’s severe wildfire season, which produced emissions six to eight times above the norm. Meanwhile, technology-based carbon dioxide removal stands at a mere 0.01 million tonnes of CO2, dwarfed by the scale of current fossil CO2 emissions by a factor of one million.

The Global Carbon Budget Report, now in its 18th year, is a meticulously peer-reviewed annual publication crafted by over 120 scientists globally. It adheres to transparent and established methodologies and is set to be published in the journal ‘Earth System Science Data’.

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