Rapid aging expected in coastal regions due to climate migration

As global warming causes sea levels to rise, younger people are moving away from the coast to inland areas, according to a study by researchers at Florida State University. This leaves older populations on the coast, leading to many problems.

Cities where people are moving to will try to handle the growing populations sustainably. However, coastal communities with older populations will face new difficulties. These include losing important services like health care workers, says Matt Hauer, an Associate Professor of Sociology and the lead author of the study, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"In the destination communities where populations are increasing you'll need more dentists, doctors, service workers, construction workers, etc.," Hauer said.

A recent study warns that climate migration, influenced by rising sea levels, could lead to rapidly aging coastal populations.

The research, projecting migration patterns until 2100 in the United States, suggests that the demographic impact of climate migration is more significant than previously estimated. This is due to a phenomenon termed "demographic amplification," where climate migrants not only directly affect population dynamics but also amplify other demographic processes.

Climate change influences migration, affects demographics

People moving due to climate change can influence others to do the same, leading to a ripple effect or “demographic amplification,” according to a study by Hauer and his team. This study not only estimates where people might move as climate change impacts livability but also considers demographic data and secondary effects.

Imagine young families leaving areas like Miami and relocating elsewhere. The influx of people to these new locations can attract even more people. The study suggests that these indirect processes could result in 5.3 to 18 times more climate migrants than those directly displaced by rising sea levels.

By 2100, the median age in coastal communities could increase by up to 10 years. Older individuals are less likely to move, meaning they could be left behind in these communities. As younger populations are more likely to migrate, areas with rapid out-migration could see accelerated aging of their population.

"Think about who are more unlikely to move and who will be left behind in these communities; it tends to be the oldest," Hauer said.

"Because migration is most likely to occur in more youthful populations, areas experiencing accelerated out-migration could face accelerated population aging."

Sea-level rise may increase migration 5.3 to 18 times more

The study focuses on sea-level rise (SLR) as a climate hazard, predicting that demographic amplification could result in 5.3 to 18 times more migrants than conventional models suggest. Furthermore, coastal areas experiencing climate-driven out-migration may face accelerated population aging.

The research incorporates fertility and gravity effects, revealing potential shifts in population growth between origin and destination areas.

Demographic amplification refers to the feedback loop where climate migrants influence population trajectories both in their origin and destination. Young migrants could contribute to population growth in new destinations, affecting demographics and necessitating changes in infrastructure and services. This compounding effect, often overlooked in previous models, underscores the complexity of climate migration's demographic impact.

The findings emphasize the need for policies addressing sustainable growth management in both origin and destination areas. Access to affordable housing, aging services, public health infrastructure, and strategic planning are crucial to anticipate and accommodate the demographic changes brought about by climate migration. The study suggests that overlooking demographic amplification could lead to an underestimation of the true impact of climate migration.

Preparing for future challenges

The research team, including doctoral student Sunshine Jacobs and computational scientist Scott Kulp, developed a migration model using sea level rise data from Climate Central and migration patterns from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. This tool allowed them to predict migration on a county-by-county basis across the country.

They used that tool to predict migration on a county-by-county basis across the country. Jacobs said they can adapt the model to research different hazards that go beyond encroaching seas.

"We only looked at sea level rise," she said. "Imagine other hazards that we know cause people to move, like heat events, wildfires and economic hazards. The future uses and implications of the model are amazing."

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