Not even snow cannons will save Europe's ski slopes from climate change

• Half of Europe's ski facilities, particularly those in southern countries, face the risk of climate change, jeopardizing ski tourism.
• Climate change scenarios of 2°C and 4°C increases pose significant threats to ski resorts, affecting around 50% of global ski facilities.
• Artificial snowmaking offers limited help; even with its use, up to 71% of ski centers could be at risk in a 4°C warming scenario.
• The study, led by Hugues François from the University of Grenoble, analyzed 2,234 ski resorts across 28 European countries.
• Ski resorts' high energy costs due to artificial snow systems add to the challenges of climate change adaptation and mitigation in the sector.

A new study shows that the increase in temperature will put half of the ski facilities in Europe at risk, especially harshly in southern countries, where artificial snow will not be enough.

Climate experts project 2ºC, 4ºC warming

The projections provided by climate change experts for the upcoming years indicate two possible scenarios: one that is concerning, with a 2ºC increase above the pre-industrial average, and another that is even more alarming, with a 4ºC increase.

Unfortunately, the adverse effects will not exempt the majority of ski slopes in Europe, which account for approximately 50% of the world's ski resorts. Even with the assistance of artificial snow cannons, ski resorts will struggle to mitigate the challenges ahead.

Hugues François, University of Grenoble, led the study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, which concluded the main finding.

For the study, the authors comprehensively analyzed 2,234 ski resorts in 28 European countries to assess changes in snow cover under 2°C increases and 4°C warming. In the first case, 53% of these facilities face a very high risk of insufficient snow supply, albeit with large regional variations. In the second case, the ruin of the sector is almost total, with 98% of the facilities threatened. 

Insufficient cannons

The authors quantified the effect of different percentages of ski resorts using snowmaking and resource use in order to assess whether artificial snowmaking could help alleviate their situation to some degree. They concluded that using artificial snow on 50% of the surface of a station would reduce the percentage of stations in danger by approximately 25% in the 2ºC increase scenario, although it would increase energy expenditure and carbon emissions.

In the case of an increase of 4ºC, even with this artificial snow supplement, up to 71% of the ski centers would be in the pillory.

The authors suggest that these findings offer ways to more effectively consider climate change effects on the ski tourism industry and offer insights into how climate change adaptation and mitigation are connected in this sector.

However, they acknowledge that these snow production forecasts rely on simplified assumptions, particularly about snow production coverage and resource requirements, and should not be treated as final conclusions.

In the case of an increase of 4ºC, up to 71% of the ski centers would be in the pillory, even with this artificial snow supplement.

Ernesto Rodríguez Camino, a meteorologist from the Spanish Meteorological Association (AME), highlights that this study proposes for the first time a common methodology to analyze the risks that ski tourism can suffer in all resorts on the European continent. 

"Snowmaking has little effect in ski areas at lower altitudes and in areas further south, since too high temperatures prevent effective snow production," he explains in statements to SMC Spain. However, “snowmaking is effective in the north and at higher elevations,” he says.

In Spain, maximum risk

The situation in Spain is quite delicate, as researchers have been pointing out in recent years. “François states, "Climate change seriously threatens Spanish ski resorts, irrespective of artificial snow cover."

“In my opinion, I would consider these ski resorts to be 'razor's edge', with very limited prospects and at risk of even the slightest additional warming. This doesn't imply imminent danger for everyone, but one should carefully assess snowmaking before making decisions.”

An analysis prepared by Ballena Blanca based on data from the sector's employers' association, Atudem, recently indicated that the six largest Spanish ski centers (five located in the Pyrenees and one in Sierra Nevada) already have 52% of their slopes covered with artificial snow installations, compared to 40% in 2011.

A report from the Pyrenean Observatory for Climate Change (OPCC) indicates that, even when plugged into the artificial support of the cannons, almost a third of the slopes in the Pyrenees would have to close in a 2ºC warming scenario.

During the last winter season, even the highest alpine resorts in Austria and Switzerland experienced a shortage of snow due to record heat figures, as reported by MeteoSuisse. The authors of the new study highlight that all these resorts will face the additional challenge of the high energy expenses related to artificial snow systems. This includes increased water and electricity requirements, along with the carbon emissions associated with electricity generation for snowmaking.

It is very correct to have included the carbon footprint linked to the transport of tourists, water demand and energy demand

Juan Terrádez Mas — Researcher at the Pyrenean Observatory of Climate Change (OPCC)

Unexpected effects

Marc Pons, a researcher at the Center for Hydrology in Canmore, Canada, and an OPCC collaborator, finds the work interesting as it explores the energy and water cost of snow cannons. However, he believes it overlooks the seasonal differences at the local level. Pons suggests that there are both vulnerable and resilient stations in the Pyrenees. He emphasizes the importance of determining which ski resorts are worth investing in and which ones may face difficulties with adaptation and eventual failure.

"A critical scenario may lead to production slowdown, and some may underestimate potential risks while considering adaptation investments. However, despite this, there will still be a wide selection of stations available. Surviving stations will thrive due to their loyal fan base, as evident in numerous studies."

“Even if a significant part of Europe's ski resorts can function with global warming of 2°C”, the authors conclude, “the ability of ski tourism destinations, as a whole, to reduce their share of greenhouse gas emissions greenhouse gases below the level of global warming is a great challenge.” 

All this, without taking into account other possible negative spiral effects that the loss of snow would bring, as indicated by the specialist Paul Peeters in an analysis article also published in Nature. “One possible response to this situation is for skiers to travel longer distances to reach ski resorts that still have snow in other parts of the world,” he notes, “which would lead to additional transportation-related emissions.” 

Not to mention the added impact that the extension of this snow sport in China will have, after the success of the 2022 Winter Olympics in this country, which takes the impact of the activity in terms of emissions to a new scale.

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