IMD forecasts above normal rainfall in Southern, Central India from Oct to Dec

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal rainfall in parts of central, southern peninsular, and northeast India during October-December. The IMD also predicts higher-than-usual maximum temperatures across much of India in October, except for some areas in central India and the southern peninsula.

In a virtual press briefing, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra emphasized above-average rainfall in the southern peninsula during the post-monsoon, or northeast monsoon, season. Affected regions include Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and south interior Karnataka. These areas experience the winter monsoon, which provides significant late-year rainfall, especially for Tamil Nadu, where this is the primary rainy season.

Despite the positive forecast, the IMD warned that La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific could lead to below-normal rainfall for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. La Niña suppresses the northeast monsoon over India, as observed in previous years. Mohapatra stated that Tamil Nadu and Puducherry generally receive lower rainfall during La Niña years.

The Indian Ocean Dipole, which influences the Indian monsoon like the El Niño Southern Oscillation, is expected to remain neutral in the coming weeks. This means the northeast monsoon’s performance could depend on intra-seasonal weather events.

The IMD projects the region could receive over 112% of the long-term average of 334.13 mm of rainfall. Central India and parts of northeast India are expected to see above-normal rainfall. However, normal to below-average rain is forecasted for northwest India and parts of the southern peninsula.

The IMD anticipates over 115% of the long-period average of 75.4 mm rainfall for October nationwide, with central India and southern peninsular regions expecting above-normal precipitation. However, Jammu & Kashmir and parts of eastern India may experience dry conditions.

Alongside the rainfall forecast, the IMD predicts a rise in day and night temperatures in several northeastern regions, including Jammu & Kashmir, West Bengal, Odisha, Gujarat, and Rajasthan. The combination of high temperatures and varying rainfall patterns underscores the importance of closely monitoring seasonal developments.

The IMD expects the southwest monsoon to withdraw from northern and northwestern India soon. The northeast monsoon, crucial for Tamil Nadu, is predicted to arrive on time around mid-October, with a standard deviation of four days.

Despite La Niña’s variability, the IMD maintains an optimistic outlook for post-monsoon rainfall, particularly in southeastern peninsular India, where above-normal rainfall is expected. This follows a wetter-than-usual southwest monsoon season, with India receiving 108% of normal rainfall.

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