India's economy grows 7%, emissions increase slows to 4%: Study

India has achieved a significant milestone by reducing the emission intensity of its GDP by 33% from 2005 to 2019, as per the third National Communication approved by the Union Cabinet, which will be submitted to the UN soon.

As a participant in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement, India is obligated to submit such reports. The first two National Communications were submitted in 2004 and 2012.

The latest report indicates that while India’s GDP grew at a cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 7% between 2005 and 2019, emissions increased at a CAGR of about 4%, demonstrating a lower rate of emission increase compared to GDP growth.

India’s GDP emissions down 33%

The environment ministry stated on Saturday that this achievement reflects India’s success in decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions. The country has surpassed its original target of reducing emission intensity by 33-35% over the 2005 level by 2030, achieving this goal 11 years ahead of schedule. The target has now been revised to reduce emission intensity by 45% by 2030, compared to the 2005 level.

Furthermore, India’s share of non-fossil sources in the installed capacity of electricity generation in 2023 exceeds 41%. This accomplishment meets the second voluntary emission reduction target of achieving 40% cumulative electrical power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy sources by 2021 – nine years ahead of the 2030 target date.

These milestones were highlighted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his address at the UN Climate Change Summit (COP28) in Dubai on Friday. From 2005 to 2019, India created an additional carbon sink of 1.97 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, keeping the country on track to reach the target of creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes through tree and forest cover by 2030.

In 2019, the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector acted as a significant carbon sink, removing 485,472 gigagrams of CO2 equivalent (GgCO2e) from the atmosphere, where one GgCO2e equals 1,000 tonnes of CO2 equivalent.

After accounting for both emissions and removals, India’s net national emissions in 2019 amounted to 2,646,556 GgCO2e (or 2.6 billion tonnes CO2e). The total national emissions, including LULUCF, saw an increase of 4.56% compared to 2016.

Green credit scheme

Regarding the third National Determined Contribution (NDC) target of creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3.0 billion tonnes through tree and forest cover by 2030, the report shows that India has already added an extra carbon sink of 1.97 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent between 2005 and 2019.

The Union government has introduced a “green credit” scheme to transform degraded land, wasteland, and community land into forests. This initiative allows corporations to create forests and earn “green credits,” which can be traded internationally. Officials are currently drafting the rules for this scheme.

The 3rd National Communication report, compiled from 87 scientific studies and contributions from 27 ministries, utilizes GHG emission data up to 2019. The energy sector was the largest contributor to overall anthropogenic emissions (75.81%), followed by agriculture (13.44%), industrial processes and product use (8.41%), and waste (2.34%).

In addition to the National Communication reports, India submitted a Biennial Update Report in 2021 (with GHG inventory of 2016) and a Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy at COP27 in 2022. The new report underscores India’s commitment to climate action and its progress in implementing effective measures to reduce emissions and promote sustainable growth.

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