How Pakistan is suffering the biggest consequences of climate change?

Pakistan, a country responsible for less than 1% of global carbon emissions, is dealing with the most serious consequences of climate change. With the fifth highest vulnerability to climate disasters in the world, Pakistan faces a relentless series of challenges, from glacier depletion to devastating floods. The nation's resilience is put to the test as it struggles to recover from a multitude of weather-related disasters.

The combination of extensive glacial melting and limited carbon footprint presents a formidable challenge, compelling the government to implement its first-ever National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to enhance resilience against climate change impacts.

According to the Global Climate Risk Index, the country has lost almost ten thousand lives and suffered economic losses worth 3.8 billion USD between 1999 and 2018. Changing weather patterns, rising temperatures, melting glaciers in the north, and recurrent extreme weather events have put immense strain on the nation's resources and infrastructure.

Severe floods, Pakistan climate impact

In August 2022, torrential monsoon rains caused unprecedented flooding that affected more than 33 million people, a number comparable to the entire population of Canada.

While Pakistan's carbon footprint remains small, the effects of climate change have been profound. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, the country has lost nearly 10,000 lives and suffered $3.8 billion worth of economic losses between 1999 and 2018.

The degradation of glacial reservoirs, one of the largest outside the poles, poses a grave threat to Pakistan's water security. Glacial melting in the Himalayas and Karakoram mountains has led to catastrophic drought, and the country already faces one of the highest rates of water stress in the world. The rapid depletion of forests, driven in part by illegal logging, has further exacerbated the crisis.

Increased precipitation and glaciers melting, fueled by climate change, mainly caused the 2022 Pakistan floods, which destroyed around 50% of Pakistan's crops and can lead to food shortages.

Pakistan: Climate change intensifies monsoons

Pakistan is located at a place on the globe which bears the brunt of two major weather systems. One can cause high temperatures and drought, like the heatwave in March 2023, and the other brings monsoon rains.

The science linking climate change and more intense monsoons is quite simple. Global warming is making air and sea temperatures rise, leading to more evaporation. Warmer air can hold more moisture, making monsoon rainfall more intense.

Scientists predict that the average rainfall in the Indian summer monsoon season will increase due to climate change. This can lead to devastating floods, as seen in the recent events that submerged one-third of Pakistan’s land area and affected millions of people. The floods also damaged infrastructure, crops, livestock, and livelihoods, posing a serious threat to food security and economic stability.

Pakistan also has something else making it susceptible to climate change effects - its immense glaciers. The northern region is sometimes referred to as part of the ‘third pole’ - it contains more glacial ice than anywhere in the world outside of the polar regions.

As the world warms, glacial ice is melting. Glaciers in Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions are melting rapidly, creating more than 3,000 lakes. Around 33 of these are at risk of sudden bursting, which could unleash millions of cubic meters of water and debris, putting 7 million people at risk.

The impacts of climate change are having a devastating effect on people's lives and livelihoods in Pakistan. Farmers are struggling to grow crops, people are losing their homes to floods, and children are being denied an education due to extreme weather events.

GLOFs threaten Pakistan's water supply

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are already damaging infrastructure and disrupting water supply in mountainous areas. Moreover, glacial melting can also affect the flow of the Indus River, which is the lifeline of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydropower sectors. A reduction in glacial runoff could lead to water scarcity and power shortages in the future.

Another impact of climate change on Pakistan is sea level rise. Pakistan has a coastline of about 1,000 km along the Arabian Sea, where millions of people live in low-lying coastal areas. Sea level rise can cause saltwater intrusion, coastal erosion, flooding, and displacement of communities. It can also affect the mangrove forests and marine ecosystems that provide valuable services such as fishery production, carbon sequestration, and coastal protection.

Pakistan's ambitious climate adaptation plan

Pakistan’s climate change challenge is formidable, but not insurmountable. The government has recently unveiled its first-ever National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to enhance the nation’s resilience against climate change impacts.

The NAP aims to integrate adaptation measures into national policies and plans across various sectors such as water, agriculture, energy, health, biodiversity, and disaster management. It also seeks to mobilize resources and partnerships for implementing adaptation actions at national and sub-national levels.

The NAP is a welcome step towards addressing Pakistan’s climate vulnerability, but it needs to be followed by concrete actions and investments. Pakistan also needs to strengthen its mitigation efforts by reducing its greenhouse gas emissions and increasing its renewable energy share.

Moreover, Pakistan needs to collaborate with regional and international partners to tackle the global challenge of climate change. Only by taking urgent and ambitious actions can Pakistan avoid the worst impacts of climate change and secure a sustainable future for its people.

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