Heat wave deaths in Uttar Pradesh linked to climate change

An analysis by Climate Central, an independent US-based group of scientists and communicators, reveals that climate change has at least doubled the chances of a recent heat wave in Uttar Pradesh. The three-day extreme heat event that occurred from June 14 to 16 was found to be at least twice as likely from human-induced climate change, according to the researchers.

The analysis used the Climate Change Index (CSI), a metric developed by Climate Central. The CSI measures how daily average temperatures have shifted from the historical average and quantifies the contribution of climate change to these temperature changes.

The index uses a five-point scale, where levels above 1 indicate a clear sign of climate change. Levels between 2 and 5 indicate that climate change made temperatures two to five times more likely. A CSI of 4 means that climate change made the day's temperature at least four times more likely.

The researchers shared CSI maps centered on the cities of Lucknow, Kanpur, Gorakhpur and Varanasi, which showed that certain parts of Uttar Pradesh reached CSI levels of three, indicating that high temperatures became at least three times more likely due to to climate change. The severity of the heat wave was exacerbated by the occurrence of extreme temperatures coupled with high humidity, which is an unusual combination.

This study highlights the impact of climate change on heat waves, which are known to be one of the deadliest weather events.

Friederike Otto, a research fellow at Imperial College London and co-director of the World Weather Attribution (WWA), stresses the need for urgent action in implementing heat action plans to adapt to the increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves.

Heat related incidents

Heat related incidents during the heat wave in Uttar Pradesh resulted in multiple hospitalizations and deaths. While officials attributed only two deaths to heat stroke, media reports indicated higher death tolls in the region, including in the neighboring Deoria district.

Heat wave conditions prevailed for several days in various parts of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Telangana and the northern coast of Andhra Pradesh. The India Meteorological Department declared a heatwave when the maximum temperature reached certain thresholds and deviated significantly from the normal average temperature.

Heat action plans are crucial policy responses to mitigate the life-threatening economic impacts of heat waves. These plans include various activities, disaster responses, and post-heat wave measures to reduce adverse effects. However, the implementation of such plans must be accelerated.

Research indicates that unless carbon emissions are rapidly reduced, the combination of extreme heat and humidity will become more frequent and intense, posing greater risks to human health. Heat waves have already claimed more than 17,000 lives in India in the last 50 years. The increased mortality rate due to heat waves is a significant climate risk for South Asian countries, as highlighted by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Impacts on human health

In addition to the impacts on human health, extremely high temperatures can reduce crop yields and crop reproductive failures, posing new challenges for food security. Heat-related stress affects a significant portion of the workforce in India, and if this trend continues, the country may face significant economic losses, as projected by the McKinsey Global Institute.

India has been experiencing record temperatures, with notable months like February 2023 being the hottest since record-keeping began in 1901. March 2022 was also the warmest and third driest in 121 years, while April 2023 ranked as the third warmest in the country. April registered.

The findings of this analysis underscore the urgent need for climate action to mitigate the impacts of heat waves and address the underlying causes of climate change.

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