Half world is 5 years past peak fossil power: Study

Energy think tank Ember's new analysis reveals that half of the world’s economies surpassed a peak in power generation from fossil fuels five years ago. The 107 power sectors, accounting for 38% of global electricity demand, have witnessed their emissions decrease by nearly 20% over the past decade.

Most of these economies (78 in total) have managed to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels in their power sectors through the growth of clean electricity since the post-2000 high in fossil power. Interestingly, 45 of these economies achieved this while also increasing their overall electricity generation, primarily due to increased electricity demand.

Global shift: Half of world’s economies transitioning from Fossil Fuels

Dave Jones, Global Insights Lead at Ember, pointed out that many people are unaware of how many countries’ power sectors are already well into a phase of declining fossil fuel use. He noted that for many countries, this was achieved while electricity demand was rising.

Countries from almost every region of the world are moving beyond a peak in fossil power. The EU, Oceania, and North America are already experiencing a decline in fossil power, with fossil generation falling by 30%, 20%, and 15%, respectively, from their regional peaks. All but one EU member state have passed the milestone of five years since a peak in fossil power this millennium.

On a continental level, fossil power across Africa appears to have plateaued; a similar trend is observed for Latin America and the Caribbean, which has been the case for over a decade. The only regions yet to reach a peak are Asia and the Middle East.

Jones added that due to the success of solar and wind energy, even many key emerging economies are close to reaching their peak. He believes we are on the verge of a new era of decline in fossil fuel use in the global power sector.

Ember’s analysis also shows that economies that are at least one year past a peak in fossil power account for 50% of global demand - further evidence that we are at a tipping point for fossil power generation. So far this year, power sector emissions have already plateaued, with Ember’s analysis showing that emissions only increased by 0.2% in the first half of 2023.

Half World’s Economies Surpass Fossil Peak

According to recent data, half of the world’s economies have already surpassed a peak in power generation from fossil fuels five years ago. These 107 power sectors, which account for 38% of global electricity demand, have seen their emissions decrease by nearly 20% over the past decade. Economies that are at least one year past a peak in fossil power represent 50% of global electricity demand.

This data suggests that we are nearing a global peak in power generation from fossil fuels. As more countries continue to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, we are likely to see a structural decline in power sector emissions worldwide.

The slowdown in power sector emissions has been largely driven by the rapid expansion of renewable electricity, particularly from wind and solar. From 2015 to 2022, global electricity generation from wind and solar more than tripled, limiting the growth in fossil generation even as global power demand continued to rise. Without the rise of wind and solar in the global power mix, emissions from the power sector today would be 20% higher.

Oceania, largely due to the efforts of Australia and New Zealand, has significantly reduced its fossil generation by 20% in the last 13 years. These two countries, which account for 96% of the region’s power demand, have reduced their fossil power by 20% and 56%, respectively, from their peaks.

North America has also seen a decline in fossil generation, which is now 15% lower than it was 15 years ago. This is largely due to changes in the US, where fossil use in the power sector has dropped by 14% over the same period.

Africa and Latin America’s Fossil Plateau

In Africa, electricity generation from fossil fuels has plateaued, decreasing by 0.5% in the last 3 years. A similar trend is observed in Latin America and the Caribbean, where fossil fuel generation has remained flat for over a decade. However, there are some success stories in these regions.

For instance, Chile’s fossil power has decreased by 20% from a peak six years ago, despite an increase in electricity demand. Similarly, Nigeria’s fossil power has dropped by 8% in the last 8 years, even as electricity demand has risen.

The only regions yet to reach a peak in fossil power are the Middle East and Asia. However, there are some promising developments in these regions as well. For example, Nepal has completely eliminated fossil fuels from its power sector. Japan’s fossil power has dropped by more than a fifth since its peak a decade ago. Viet Nam has reduced its fossil generation by 16% in just three years, largely due to the expansion of wind and solar.

In the Middle East, Jordan and the UAE are approaching five years past a peak in fossil power. Among G20 countries, half of them - the UK, Italy, Canada, Germany, Japan, South Africa, Australia, the US, France and Argentina - are more than five years past a peak in fossil generation.

Experts expect even China, where electricity demand is expanding more rapidly than any other country, to see a decline in coal use from 2026 as it leads the world in wind and solar additions.

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