February 2024: Another month, another record – earth's heat continues to rise

The year 2024 has seen unprecedented temperature increases, with both January and February setting new records for heat. February’s temperatures soared to 1.77°C above the historical average for the month in the pre-industrial era, marking it as the warmest February on record.

Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that February’s average surface air temperature reached 13.54°C, 0.81°C higher than the 1991-2020 February average. C3S, a European Union’s Earth Observation Program component, has been monitoring these changes closely.

Furthermore, February 2024 surpassed the previous record-holder, February 2016, by 0.12°C. Analyzing the global average temperature from March 2023 to February 2024 reveals an increase of 1.56°C from pre-industrial levels and a 0.68°C rise compared to the 1991-2020 average. These figures underscore the ongoing trend of global warming.

"February continues the long streak of records from the past few months. While this might seem remarkable, it's not surprising because the ongoing warming of the climate system inevitably causes new temperature extremes," Copernicus Director Carlos Buontempo stated. "The climate reacts to the present concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. If we fail to stabilize these concentrations, we will undeniably confront new global temperature records and their repercussions."

Record Warmth in February 2024

February 2024 marked the warmest February globally, recording an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 13.54°C. This temperature was 0.81°C above the February average for the period 1991-2020 and surpassed the previous warmest February in 2016 by 0.12°C.

Notably, it also extends a streak of nine consecutive months, each setting a record as the warmest for its respective month. Compared to the pre-industrial reference period of 1850-1900, February 2024 was 1.77°C warmer. Over the past twelve months (March 2023–February 2024), the global average temperature reached its highest point, standing at 0.68°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.56°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

Throughout February, temperatures were exceptionally high, with the first half of the month experiencing daily averages peaking at 2°C above the 1850-1900 levels for four consecutive days (8–11 February). European temperatures notably elevated, surpassing the February average by 3.30°C, especially in central and eastern Europe. Beyond Europe, observers noted above-average temperatures over northern Siberia, central and northwest North America, South America, Africa, and western Australia.

Despite the weakening of El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, marine air temperatures remained unusually high, with the average global sea surface temperature (SST) for February 2024 setting a new record at 21.06°C, surpassing the previous record set in August 2023. Boreal winter 2023/2024 (Dec-Jan-Feb) also stood out, registering as the warmest globally and the second warmest in Europe on record, after the winter of 2019/2020, with temperatures 0.78°C and 1.44°C above the 1991-2020 average, respectively.

Warming has dominated globally

The global climate has been experiencing a significant warming trend, with the past nine months consecutively setting new temperature records as the hottest months ever recorded. This trend was evident in January of this year, when temperatures were 1.66°C higher than the pre-industrial average.

The impact of this warming was particularly pronounced in February 2024, starting with exceptionally high temperatures in the early days of the month. The heat intensified between February 8 and 11, with temperatures consistently exceeding 2°C above average.

The trend of record-breaking global temperatures has been unrelenting since June 2023, making the past year the warmest on record. The influence of El Niño is undeniable, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimating a 60% chance of its continuation from March to May 2024, and an 80% likelihood of a neutral phase from April to June.

The 2023-24 El Niño ranks among the top five strongest events, peaking in late 2023 and now gradually subsiding. However, scientists warn that its climatic impact may persist in the coming months, potentially keeping temperatures above normal and altering precipitation patterns.

The warming is not confined to land; the oceans are equally affected. In February 2024, the global average sea surface temperature reached a record 21.06°C, surpassing the previous high of 20.98°C in August 2023. By the end of February, this average had risen further to 21.09°C, indicating a continued upward trend in global temperatures.

Global weather patterns in flux

The escalating temperatures have not only raised the specter of floods and storms but have also led to uneven rainfall patterns across the globe. In February 2024, regions like western and northeastern North America, Eurasia, Central Asia, and parts of China and Japan experienced higher-than-average precipitation.

The trend extended to southeastern Brazil, southern Africa, and various parts of Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, the UK, Ireland, southern Scandinavia, and the Alps. Italy, too, witnessed more rainfall than usual.

Conversely, conditions were drier than average in other parts of North America, the Horn of Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, South Central Asia, Southern Africa, certain South American regions, and Australia, heightening the risk of wildfires.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service has reported that from December 2023 to February 2024, the aforementioned regions, along with Pakistan, northern India, northern and eastern Australia, and southern Brazil, saw more rainfall than is typical for this time of year.

Polar ice conditions have also been affected, with the Arctic ice extent in February 2024 being two percent below the average. Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice reached its third-lowest annual minimum monthly extent on record, with a 28 percent reduction compared to the average, closely mirroring its minimum extent in February 2023, which was 33 percent below average. These changes in ice cover are indicative of the broader climatic shifts occurring globally.

Did Earth exceed the 1.5-degree C climate threshold?

So far, we cannot yet calculate if the current 1.77 degrees C (3.18 degrees F) change from pre-industrial levels exceeds the Paris Agreement benchmark of 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).

According to the U.N.’s recent climate assessment report, a 20-year global mean temperature average must exceed 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) for the Paris Agreement to be broken.

"Exceeding 1.5°C for a single year doesn't mean we have breached the iconic threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does reveal that we are edging ever closer to a situation where we could exceed 1.5°C for an extended period," said Leon Hermanson, Ph.D., of the United Kingdom Met Office.

The countries ratified the 2015 Paris Accord pledged to keep the number 'well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels' and they attempted to 'limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit)' above pre-industrial levels.

"WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas said, "The 1.5°C figure does not represent some random statistic. Rather, it indicates the point at which climate impacts will increasingly harm people and indeed the whole planet."

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