Lightning alerts 'not enough,' to save lives, say experts; rural areas still at risk

On 13th July, Uttar Pradesh witnessed a tragic loss of life of at least 38 people in separate lightning incidents. The deaths occurred as the state grappled with flooding, due to heavy monsoon. Pratapgarh district accounted for 11 fatalities, followed by Sultanpur with seven deaths, Chandauli with six, Mainpuri with five, and Prayagraj with four. Several other districts, including Auraiya, Deoria, Hathras, Varanasi, and Siddharthnagar, reported one death each.

Lightning strikes are deadly or silent killers in many parts of India. In the last five years, Uttar Pradesh has lost 1,639 lives to lightning strikes, mostly in the southern parts. The recent incidents raise questions mitigative, and adaptive measures in place, particularly early warning systems to protect vulnerable populations.

According to a 2011-12 survey, Uttar Pradesh had 47% of the population directly dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. Around 13.7% population of Uttar Pradesh had Kactah houses. Close to 2,500 lives are lost every year due to lightning in India. Furthermore, Uttar Pradesh is among the top three states that incur more than 60% losses of the national toll due to lightning.

UP to implement new lightning alert system

To tackle deaths due to lightning strikes, the Uttar Pradesh government plans to set up the Uttar Pradesh Lightning Alert Management System (UPLAMS) in three phases to cover all 75 state districts. The Uttar Pradesh Relief Commissioner Naveen Kumar outlined the phased approach,

"The Lightning Alert Management System will be implemented in 37 districts in the first phase, 20 in the second, and 18 in the third.”, at the cost of Rs 300 crore. 

Dr. Manish Ranalkar, the director of the Lucknow meteorological department, explained the technology,

"It's decided to set up a lightning detection system based on time of arrival (ToA) technology, which is more accurate, across the state."

Dr. Ranalkar explained the limitations of the current system and the advantages of the proposed time of arrival ToA-based system. He claimed,

"The ToA-based system can detect and warn about lightning 30 minutes in advance." This could save lives.

The Revenue Secretary and Office of Relief Commissioner GS Naveen Kumar emphasised shifting from relief to resilience, with significant investment in disaster risk reduction. Interestingly, investments were made in the lightning alert system in 2023. Around Rs 500 crore were sanctioned in the disaster management budget, including Rs 35 crore, from the state.

In December 2023, the relief commissioner's office and IITM, Pune, planned to install 50 Lightning Detection Early Warning Systems (LDEWS) for better alerts too. The Damini lightning app, developed by IITM-Pune and ESSO, fetches data from 83 lighting detection early warning systems (LDEWS) to provide alerts within a 20 km range. Instead of time of arrival (ToA) technology, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) uses radar and satellite data to warn about lightning strikes, but it's not real-time. 

Similarly, in 2022, the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath had urged the relevant departments to build a lightning forecast system to prevent annual deaths. Apart from the warning system, the state government, in September 2018, planned to install devices that safely direct lightning to the ground, build shelters in rural areas to protect people during storms, and run awareness campaigns in high-risk areas.

Seeing the trend, there are questions raised by experts on the effectiveness of lightning alert systems, and the money continuously being poured into these initiatives. Particularly, given the high death toll from lightning strikes.

Effectiveness of lightning alert systems questioned

Professor Manoranjan Mishra, a Fakir Mohan University, said, "Research shows the ToA-based early warning system isn't effective. There are errors." He has researched lightning in India and developed a geospatial lab for the study. Mishra highlighted the limitations of current warning systems, "time of arrival (ToA) and Damini systems may not significantly reduce deaths. This is because lightning strikes are highly unpredictable. They can hit the ground directly or stay within the clouds, making it difficult to ensure comprehensive protection”. 

At the same time, Kumar Margasahayam, a lightning detection and early warning systems expert, said, with scepticism,  “the implemented systems are not fully developed."

Margasahayam highlighted issues with the existing approach,

“Different organizations like  IITM (IMD), NRSC, and various airports use their own sensor networks, leading to a lack of coordination and making it difficult to combine data effectively.” One challenge in effective implementation is the variable accuracy across landscapes. 

Margasahayam explained, "The accuracy varies greatly. The systems might work better in plains like Uttar Pradesh due to the clear line of sight. However, in mountainous regions, the accuracy can be significantly lower." 

Mishra explained the challenges in forecasting lightning activity, “There are two main issues to understand. First, forecasting lightning requires precise location predictions, known as point forecasting, which currently has only about 20% accuracy. This low accuracy makes reliable predictions almost impossible. Second, effective forecasting needs to account for both cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning activity, which adds to the complexity”.  

Addressing the margin of error, Margasahayam noted, "The margin of error in predicting lightning strikes ranges from 150 to 300 metres. Detection accuracy is usually around 70% to 85%."

The margin of error is critical in early warning systems. A 150-300 metre range may seem small, but it can make a fatal difference in populated areas or open fields. He added that to advance in lightning prediction, there needs to be a unified and high-quality network. 

Mishra asks,

"Why invest in a lightning detection system based on time of arrival (ToA) technology when installing Damini across India can give prior warnings 21, 14, or 7 minutes in advance?” He states there are better ways to prevent deaths. He suggests, [why don’t we] analyze death patterns… [Like if] people are dying inside houses, or under trees, or near water, or in farmlands.”

Mishra suggests shifting from forecasting to mitigation and protection, " [Of] 100 rupees, [spend] 90 in mitigation, and only 10 in forecasting… that's scientifically proven." This approach could save more lives.

Farmers lack timely weather alerts

Mishra raised questions about the practical application of warnings. He noted, "If you give me a warning using an application software like Damini, or any other, what happens when people see it? Are they going to stay inside their house? That's the bigger question."

Similarly, O. P. Sreejith, a Scientist at Climate Research & Services, Pune specialising in Climate Monitoring and Prediction, extends the same argument, "The main issue is disseminating this information to the local level, particularly to farmers and other individuals in the fields."

Sreejith explained that their system provides a maximum of 4 hours' notice, but field workers often leave early and need to be connected to forecast systems or mobile alerts. "We have the Damini app that updates up to 1 hour in advance, but field workers aren't on their mobiles. This communication and monitoring gap is a significant issue," he added.

Experts from other countries have proposed other solutions. Chandima Gomes, a professor of high-voltage engineering at the University of Witwatersrand in South Africa, suggests using repurposed materials like cargo containers as "safe shelters." These weather-resistant structures can act as Faraday cages, protecting people from lightning strikes. This approach has been implemented in remote mining sites in Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, and Peru.

The upcoming months and years are critical to determine if Uttar Pradesh's new lightning strike prevention approach can save lives. Ongoing evaluation, adaptation, and improvement are essential.