Indigenous communities in J&K struggle with increasing lightning risks to livelihoods

The alpine pastures in Jammu and Kashmir are picturesque – home to vibrant wildflowers and rare animals like the Hangul and Tibetan Antelope. But, as Mushtaq Ahmad Chopan – a shepherd from Budgam, J&K – said, the living conditions are harsh. The weather changes dramatically, he added. Many like Mushtaq have to live in a stone shelter or a tent, while their livestock roam under the open sky. In the face of extreme weather events including lightning strikes, which are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change, they have little defence. Expressing his frustration, Mushtaq said, 

“There is nothing there and when we are there, there is no guarantee of our lives. It’s all up to Allah (god).” 

At the advent of summer, the nomadic, indigenous communities–Gujjar, Bakarwal and Chopan–in Kashmir trek about 50 to 100 KM to altitudes of 2000 ft to 4000 ft– with hundreds of livestock. The sheep and goat breeds that they typically rear are hardy species, like Karnah, Poonchi, Bakharwal, Kashmir Valley, Changthangi, and Gurej.

They make these journeys with their animals, as well as those owned by the zamindar or village elites. This is the revenue model for the community, which spends about six months of the year in these high pastures. During winter, due to heavy snowfall, they stay at home.

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Haknar

Last year, on a fateful day in May, Tasleema Bano was worried. Her father and brother had not returned to Haknar, just 80 km from the capital of Jammu and Kashmir, with their sheep. And, as she looked at the sky, dangerous black clouds were engulfing everything into darkness.

On May 22nd, 2022, a sudden lightning strike killed 63 sheep that had been grazing in the mountainous region of Kangan, in Ganderbal, Jammu & Kashmir. Their shepherd Abdul Rashid Chopan, Tasleema’s brother, lay unconscious beside the sheep carcasses. “It was like experiencing a heart attack… my entire body was shivering before I lost consciousness,” he recalled. 

“When a person is directly hit by lightning, which carries tens of thousands of amps, the voltage across the body increases, potentially reaching millions of volts. This can cause a flashover, where part of the current flows over the body surface, leading to possible burns and other problems,” said Dr. Joseph Dwyer, a professor of physics at the University of New Hampshire, and an expert in lightning physics. 

“The extent to which electricity is going to affect a person, depends on a lot of factors, added Mary Ann Cooper, retired Professor Emerita of Emergency Medicine, from the University of Illinois. Cooper is the Managing Director of African Centres for Lightning and Electromagnetics Network, a pan-African network of centres dedicated to reducing deaths, injuries, and property damage from lightning. “What they're wearing, whether they're wet or not, and what part of the cardiac cycle they are struck in make a difference to the severity of impacts,” she explained.

Those who survive lightning strikes are not unscathed, she pointed out. They can develop cognitive issues and have problems in learning and remembering things.

As per the 2011 census, the Gujjars and Bakkarwals constitute 11.9% of the state’s population – 1.5 million out of 12.5 million. The nomadic communities in Kashmir are already vulnerable to modern development, and the migration pattern severely impacts the community’s literacy rate.

One report suggests that over 66% of Gujjars and Bakarwals live in poverty. Now, climate change-induced extreme weather events pose a significant threat to their livelihood and existence in the region.

Tasleema said they were compensated just 3000 rupees per sheep from the Animal and Sheep Husbandry Department of Kashmir, while the sheep cost at least ₹ 15000-20000 in the market. “We were mourning as if one of our family members had died… these sheep are everything to us,” she said.

Abdul Salam Chopan, Abdul Rashid and Tasleema’s father added,

“I have never seen such erratic weather patterns… nowadays, it gets very hot in the morning and suddenly the weather turns really bad.” He further added, “I have not seen such lightning occurrences before.”

Here, Abdul Salam’s observation is indeed correct. 

Increase in lightning strikes, and fatalities 

Globally the frequency of lightning around the world could increase by 10-25%, and its intensity could spike by 15-50% by the end of the century, according to a study published in the journal ‘Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics’ in 2021. Another report suggests that we can expect a 12% increase in ‘lightning activity’ for every 1°C of warming. 

With warming, Jammu and Kashmir, due to its topography (which creates a natural upward lift of moisture-laced air), is especially prone to lightning strikes, cloud bursts, and many other extreme weather events.

According to the data from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, there has been a significant increase in the number of lightning incidents in Jammu and Kashmir over the past few years, primarily from June to September. In the state, the overall increase from 2019 to 2022 is 172.39%.

Scientists from the Divecha Centre for Climate Change at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru, stated that lightning strikes across India increased by approximately 25% from 1998 to 2014. In just the last two years, a significant 34% increase has been observed, according to the Annual Lightning Report 2020-2022. Lightning occurs when towering cumulonimbus clouds extend at least twelve to fifteen kilometres from the ground. If the cloud temperature is between 0°C and –40°C degrees Celsius, thunder and lightning are likely.

Dr Mukhtar Ahmed, a senior scientist and Director at Srinagar’s weather station told us,

“The increase can be attributed to the unstable atmosphere, primarily due to increasing temperatures and cutting down trees in the region.”

Data from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) revealed that over 100,000 people lost their lives due to lightning strikes between 1967 and 2019. This is more than double the casualties due to floods. As per data from 2021, lightning was responsible for 2,800 deaths in India.

The numbers were similar in previous years, with 2,862 deaths in 2020 and 2,876 in 2019. These statistics underscore the growing threat posed by lightning in India. Already, lightning in India is one of the biggest causes of death (35.8%) due to the forces of nature.

In fact, despite the recorded increase, some experts point out that the lack of data collection and reporting mechanisms in Kashmir likely indicates that lightning-related incidents are being underreported.  

It is important to note that almost all governmental bodies–the Animal Husbandry Department Kashmir, the Directorate of Sheep Husbandry Kashmir and the Department of Disaster Management– declined to provide official data on the deaths of sheep or goats.

Dr Khalid Omer, Veterinary Assistant Surgeon at the Department of Sheep Husbandry Kashmir, explained that their primary focus is always on treating injured animals. “We try our best to save them and animal survival after lightning strikes depends on its severity, with injuries often including burns, mobility issues, and hypothermia. If they don’t survive, we perform post-mortems on the deceased animals to know the cause of death. We count how many have died and submit a report for the records. This report reaches our concerned officer for record purposes.”

A source from the Sheep Husbandry Department of Kashmir who did not want to be identified revealed the number of livestock deaths due to natural calamities in 2022-23 is 6,541. 

However, the records rarely mention that the cause of death was lightning. The government official responsible for the inspection of the livestock told us that he had limited knowledge about the science of lightning. Therefore, if there are more sheep caracess he writes that it was due to “cloudburst”. He said the people use the same Kashmiri word to describe both cloudburst and lightning strike i.e. “trath”, or “narah trath”.

Budgam and Kalaroos

In Dabipora Village, Budgam District, 82 KM away from Haknar, Ganderbal, Mushtaq Ahmad Chopan, shared that in 2015, his uncle, father, and brother were left unconscious by a sudden lightning strike. With a heaviness in his voice, he recalled, “After a few minutes everyone got up, except my brother.” His father, Gaffar Chopan, said in Kashmiri,  "We all had fainted, and after a while, I gained consciousness… I reached out to my son to give him water… his last words were that he was dying.”

After almost one and a half years, the compensation process was completed. He said,

“During the entire process we spent our own money… we received compensation for our brother’s death but not for the five sheep that died.”

In Kalaroos,the Kupwara district of Jammu & Kashmir, Abdul Rashid Khatana has not received any compensation for his tragedy. On July 23rd, 2023, it was pouring heavily. The atmosphere was unstable, leading to a cloud burst and a lightning strike. The Sonapand stream beside their house was flowing fast. Tragically, Abdul’s wife slipped, and she drowned in the fast-flowing deluge. He said, “We did everything together… she never left my side all day.” 

Abdul Rashid Khatana mentions that he has received no assistance from the government. His wife’s death certificate has very important information missing: the reason for the death.

Early Warning Systems

Dr Mukhtar Ahmed pointed out that deaths due to heavy rain and snow have decreased in the state in recent years, as a result of better early warning systems, weather forecasts, and improved disaster management strategies. However, these efforts have not safeguarded communities against the threat of lightning strikes. 

India has multiple ground-based lightning detection networks in operation, as well as some satellite-based systems, to monitor and disseminate lightning warnings. These networks are managed by various organizations, including the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the Department of Space, and the Indian Air Force for strategic purposes. 

Mohammad Hussain Mir, a senior meteorologist at the IMD’s Srinagar station explained,

“The input we get from the radar gives us a time frame of half an hour, two hours, three hours… we generate alerts, but it's the responsibility of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) to act on these alerts. They have teams at every district and block level. We notify a specific area, and all mobiles automatically receive an alert.” 

On November 17, 2022, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) developed an app–Damini–to monitor lightning strikes and provide GPS-based notification alerts to people in a 20km-40km radius. 

In the case of Kashmir and other hilly regions, Dr Anirban Guha explained that topography plays a significant role in lightning detection. The mountains and diverse terrains affect electromagnetic wave propagation, and this complicates the process of locating lightning strikes. “Many factors come into play when trying to locate a lightning strike. These include interference, diffraction, phase delay, the inclination of the electric field, and changes in polarisation,” Guha highlights.

Of course, these apps and early warning alerts have limited effectiveness when cellular network availability is variable. In addition, many shepherds don’t have smartphones.

Lightning safety measures: Local solutions don’t meet international standards

According to a study by Chandima Gomes– a professor of high-voltage engineering at the University of Witwatersrand Johannesburg, South Africa – and Mary Ann Cooper,  “safe shelters” are important lightning safety measures for low-income communities in volatile environments. Repurposed materials like cargo containers offer sturdy, weather-resistant shelters, and can protect against lightning by acting as a Faraday cage. 

Modified metal shipping containers have been used for lightning shelter in remote mining sites in Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, and Peru, but are not currently in use in India.

Local solutions have to be adapted to local contexts. In the United States, Cooper noted they commonly use public service advisories such as ‘When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!’. However, she acknowledges that this isn’t always feasible in the case of India, as a significant population is involved in agriculture, construction, or other labour-intensive jobs which involve them staying out. Neither Abdul Rashid Khatana nor Mushtaq Ahmad Chopan or others like them can be asked not to venture outside during uncertain weather. This is how they have lived for generations; this is what their livelihoods depend on.

As ways to safeguard oneself from lightning that would be more suitable in J&K, Colonel Professor  Sanjay Srivastava, who started the “Lightning Resilient India Campaign” in 2019 with the support of the India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Science and ISRO, suggested other measures would be more effective. Srivastava is an expert on radar, remote sensing, satellite and communication technologies. He advised,  

• Backcountry lighting risk management i.e. identifying safer spaces during lightning strike possibility or alert. For instance, find places in and around the hill such as lower elevations, caves, and dense forests which provide ‘natural’ safety against such events.
• Sit in a lightning safety position, i.e. Crouch down in a ball-like position with your head tucked and hands over your ears.
• Find local lightning conductor solutions i.e. use charcoal, mud, sand, bamboo sticks etc., to create a community-wide lightning safety system.

Srivastava is yet to collaborate with J&K to raise awareness at the community level. However, he has done so in other states like Odisha, Jharkhand, etc. Srivastava, Chairman of the Climate Resilient Observing-Systems Promotion Council (CROPC) has conducted a few workshops, or stakeholder stakeholder consultations to reduce deaths by lightning strikes. 

Kumar Margasahayam, lightning detection, and early warning systems expert based in Bengaluru, India, and former Earth Networks employee, expressed his disagreement with some of the mitigation strategies proposed by Srivastava. “Lightning protection measures should adhere to internationally recognized standards, such as the IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission) standards. These provide a basis for ensuring the safety and effectiveness of lightning protection systems,” he added. He believes some of the local-level options being discussed are not accurate, and to an extent, even “dangerous”. 

Professor Guha and Kumar stressed the importance of conducting transparent research to substantiate adaptation measures. “Without proper experimentation and a proper simulation study if we apply something that can become very dangerous,” said Guha. 

On-ground realities

Dr Khalid Omer, from Kashmir’s Department of Sheep Husbandry, said that the government organises health camps for sheep, and goats in high pasture regions. He has been part of several camps himself and affirmed that the living conditions are harsh in high pastures. The need to equip shepherds with tracking gear and other necessities to deal with extreme weather events is essential, he highlighted. The government has started the process of providing weatherproof shelters for staff, people living in high areas, and animals, he claimed.

The district health department also claims to conduct general health awareness camps with a focus on educating the community about extreme weather events such as snow avalanches and lightning strikes. Dr Bushra Yousuf– Chief Medical Officer of Ganderbal– explained that their staff, including community health officers, health educators, and health workers, raise awareness in the communities about what to do during extreme weather events, but admitted that disasters such as avalanches typically receive more attention from the government. 

ACLENET’s Cooper agreed that “Besides forecasting and mitigation, raising awareness and educating people about lightning safety measures is crucial.”

However, our conversations with the affected families and people in the region suggest a lack of understanding of the recommended strategies to reduce the impact of lightning on human, and animal lives. Those we spoke to said they had never been part of a health camp where they received information on lightning strikes.  

Multiple experts emphasised the importance of collaboration between the government, local communities, and media organisations to address the growing lightning issue. They noted that community awareness campaigns are important to bridge the information gaps around lightning preventative measures and that wherever possible, alternative livelihood possibilities should be offered to local communities.  

When asked if the government could have done more to save his wife or people during extreme weather events, Abdul Rashid Khatana said, “If the government could do anything, they would.” For him, these events are happening not because of climate change, but because it is God's will, “Allah's will”.

This story was produced with support from Internews’ Earth Journalism Network.

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