Heat and Drought Now Hit Together, And Harder in Madhya Pradesh

Heatwaves and dry spells are becoming more intense and frequent in parts of Madhya Pradesh. A new scientific study says the state is entering a climate crisis, and delayed action could threaten water, farming, and rural life.

In northern MP, districts like Bhind, Morena, and Gwalior are feeling the heat. Eastern regions—Sidhi, Shahdol, and Satna- are also at serious risk. These areas are seeing less rain during the monsoon and higher temperatures year-round.

The signs are already visible. Wells are drying. Crops are failing. People are struggling to adapt. The state spans 3,08,252 km², making it India’s second-largest state by area. But the study used data from the original 51 districts to keep it consistent with past records. MP has a mix of landscapes like plateaus, hills, river valleys, and plains. Major rivers such as the Narmada, Tapti, and Chambal flow through the state. These rivers support farming and provide water for people and animals.

Heat and Drought Hit Together

Heat is already taking lives in Madhya Pradesh. Between March and May 2024, the state recorded the highest number of confirmed heat-related deaths in India—part of 56 nationwide. Nearly 25,000 suspected heat stroke cases were reported. Yet, Madhya Pradesh still lacks a state-level Heat Action Plan. Departments aren't coordinating, and key policies are stuck in approval.

The government has declared heatwaves a natural disaster starting summer 2025. But for now, responsibility rests on citizens. In Bhopal, local authorities tell people to stay indoors between 12 and 4 PM, drink more water, and wear light clothing.

A new study by scientists from IISER Bhopal and MANIT Bhopal shows that the state is facing a deepening climate crisis. Heatwaves and droughts are now hitting together more often. These events—called Compound Dry and Hot Events or CDHEs—are putting crops, water, and rural life at risk.

The researchers studied weather data from 1958 to 2022. They found that after 1990, these twin disasters have become more frequent and intense.

Dr Somil Swarnkar, Assistant Professor at the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, IISER Bhopal, said,

“Since the early 90s, the data clearly shows a rise in extreme events. After 1990, we saw a sharp rise in greenhouse gases like CO₂. This led to a strong increase in global temperatures, including in Madhya Pradesh.

The study used monthly rainfall and temperature data from a source called TerraClimate. This dataset gives detailed climate information and covers the years from 1958 to 2022. The researchers chose TerraClimate because past studies found it more accurate than others like CHIRPS and ERA5. It works well for studying farming and water-related issues. But the study also notes some limits. Since TerraClimate shows monthly data, it can’t track short-term weather events. In areas with few weather stations, the data might not be fully correct.

Rainfall Down, Temperatures Going Up

According to the study, rainfall patterns have changed a lot after 1990. Before and after 1990, pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall stayed low in most districts, under 100 mm. But during the monsoon, rainfall increased in many central and western districts by more than 50 mm. In contrast, eastern districts saw a drop in monsoon rainfall, also by over 50 mm. After 1990, post-monsoon rainfall slightly went down in most places, with the biggest drop being about 20 mm. These changes show clear shifts in how rain falls across the state.

The study also found rising temperatures in all seasons after 1990. Dr. Swarnkar explained,

"In Madhya Pradesh, especially, there's been a clear rise in temperature linked to frequent heat events. Part of this change also comes from how land is being used—urban areas have expanded, and many green zones have been replaced by concrete and agriculture."

During the pre-monsoon, temperatures stayed between 24°C and 29°C. Western districts were slightly warmer. Monsoon season temperatures were between 26.5°C and 29°C, with a few northern areas going above 29°C. On average, most districts saw a temperature rise of around 0.4°C after 1990. Some western districts had a rise of 0.5°C. The post-monsoon season saw the biggest warming. Temperature increases moved from the west to the east. Northern and eastern districts showed rises of more than 0.5°C, and some areas even saw over 0.7°C.

The study shows that both rainfall and temperature patterns in MP have shifted in recent decades. These changes could affect farming, water supply, and daily life in the state.

The worst-hit areas are in northern and eastern MP. Places like Bhind, Morena, and Gwalior have seen rising temperatures. Districts like Sidhi, Shahdol, and Satna have seen both less rain and more heat.

“Sidhi district is among the worst affected,” said Dr Vikas Poonia, co-author of the study.

“The combination of heat and low rainfall is strongest here. It affects crops, groundwater, and even drinking water.”

Farming Faces Heat and Drought

To measure the problem, the team used tools like the Standardised Precipitation Index to track rainfall and the Standardised Temperature Index to track heat. When both showed extreme levels at once, it meant a CDHE had occurred. They also used a new method called LMFDH to see how closely droughts and heatwaves are linked. A higher score meant both events were more likely to strike at the same time.

The impact on farming is already visible. Less rain means weaker crops. More heat means higher water use—and faster drying. In many villages, wells and ponds are shrinking. Farmers who rely on one good monsoon are now facing two disasters in one season.

The researchers warn that without strong action, these events will become more frequent and damaging. They suggest steps like collecting rainwater, recharging groundwater, and using drip or sprinkler systems to save water. Farmers should also shift to drought-resistant crops and plant trees alongside fields to hold moisture.

Early warning systems, better crop insurance, and support for rural incomes are key to helping communities cope. “People need tools, not just warnings,” said Dr Swarnkar. “We can’t wait for the next crisis.”

He further said,

“The state should focus on reviving water bodies that are drying up. That’s the urgent step—making sure there's enough surface water in districts facing water stress.”

Many farmers say crop insurance is delayed or pays too little. Access to drip systems or sprinklers remains low in poorer villages. Government schemes often miss the worst-hit areas. Without targeted delivery, the tools meant to build resilience stay out of reach.

Dr Poonia said,

“It’s not just about concrete cities. In tribal and rural areas, deforestation is a major factor. Cutting trees changes land cover and increases surface heat.” He added, “When forest cover reduces, more heat gets trapped. This change in land energy balance could be driving the rise in both droughts and heatwaves in those regions.”

Earlier this year, Ground Report visited Neelbad and Thuna villages in Sehore and found the same pattern—long delays, poor awareness, and rising distrust. Farmers showed us ruined soybean crops from the Kharif season and said they hadn't received a single rupee in compensation months later. Some had stopped filing complaints altogether, saying the process brings “no result, only more debt.”

The study also points to a new risk: the sharp rise in CDHEs during the post-monsoon season. This period was once considered safer. Now, many districts face more than a dozen new events each year. Northern and eastern districts, once less affected, are becoming new hotspots. These changes call for region-specific plans that reflect how climate stress is shifting across the state.

Eastern Districts Face Rising Pressure

After 1990, the nature of compound dry and hot events changed sharply across Madhya Pradesh. The chances of high temperatures increased in all districts, especially in the northern and eastern regions. At the same time, low rainfall became more common in these same areas. When these two risks strike together, they create compound events that are harder to survive and manage.

The researchers used a tool called LMFDH to measure how strongly heat and drought are linked. A higher LMFDH value means both events are likely to happen together. After 1990, LMFDH values rose across the state but were highest in the east and north. In these areas, the warming trend has become the main force behind CDHEs. Heat makes the ground drier, and dry soil heats up faster—a dangerous loop that worsens both droughts and heatwaves.

This shift has made the northern and eastern districts the most vulnerable. Sidhi, Shahdol, Satna, and nearby districts now rank highest in CDHE severity. In fact, the ten worst-affected districts are almost all in these regions. The data shows a clear trend: CDHEs are hitting more often, with stronger intensity, and in places that once had fewer climate shocks. This rising risk demands focused attention and action in these parts of the state.

The researchers recommend early warning systems that track temperature and rainfall in real time. These alerts can help farmers plan irrigation, adjust crop schedules, and manage livestock. Northern and eastern districts—where CDHEs are rising—need these systems first. Water-saving methods like rainwater harvesting, drip irrigation, and groundwater recharge are urgent in areas like Sidhi, Shahdol, and Satna.

They also suggest shifting to drought-tolerant crops, mulching, and staggered sowing to protect yields. Promoting non-farm jobs and resilient livestock can reduce economic risks. Governments should provide subsidies, crop insurance, and set up climate adaptation zones. Local training must reach villagers directly to prepare them for future extremes.

The study warns that CDHEs are rising sharply in Madhya Pradesh, especially in the north and east. Since 1990, these areas have seen hotter temperatures and less monsoon rain. Districts like Sidhi, Shahdol, and Satna face the most severe risk. The data shows a stronger link between heat and drought, making farming and water access harder.

Madhya Pradesh is already feeling the impact of rising heat and falling rainfall. The data shows a clear shift, extreme weather is no longer rare, and it's hitting harder where people depend most on farming and local water sources.

The message from scientists is direct: act now, or the damage will grow. Delayed responses could push rural communities into deeper crisis. Tools like early warnings, rainwater harvesting, drought-resistant farming, and community-led adaptation plans aren’t optional—they’re urgent.

Northern and eastern districts, especially Sidhi, Shahdol, and Satna, need focused attention. These areas are at the frontlines of a growing climate emergency. State-level planning, better coordination, and direct support for vulnerable regions can still change the outcome. The study makes one thing clear—Madhya Pradesh can’t afford to wait for the next disaster.

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