Farms, Forests, and Water Shrinking in 12 MP Districts: Study

One-third of Central India’s districts struggle with droughts, heatwaves, and erratic rainfall. In Madhya Pradesh, districts like Ratlam, Panna, Jhabua, and Morena face falling groundwater, weak infrastructure, and shrinking forests. A new study warns that these factors are making farming harder and increasing people’s vulnerability.

The study, published in the International Journal of Environment and Climate Change, assessed 102 districts across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and southern Uttar Pradesh. It found that 27.39% of these districts have low climate resilience—meaning they are poorly prepared to deal with extreme weather events and have weak capacity to recover.

Evaluation of regional preparedness

Chaitanya Ashok Adhav, a PhD researcher at G.B. Pant University, led the study. The team used over 50 indicators tied to climate exposure, agricultural output, and adaptive capacity. “We used various climate-related indicators, including temperature, precipitation, soil wetness, and humidity, to assess resilience,” said Adhav while speaking to Ground Report.

They collected weather data—rainfall, temperature, humidity, and soil wetness—for 43 years using NASA’s POWER Project,. This dataset gave insight into long-term trends and climate shocks. Then, the researchers gathered information on agricultural land use, farmer types, irrigation, livestock, road networks, schools, and healthcare services.

“Three main components shaped our resilience index: climate exposure, agricultural productivity, and climate adaptability,” said Adhav. “We looked at how exposed districts are to extreme events, how that affects crops, and how well districts can adapt using factors like groundwater levels, forest cover, crop insurance, and poverty levels.”

Each district received a score based on how it performed in these three areas. This allowed the team to identify which districts were prepared for climate shocks and which ones were not. Districts like Bhopal, Damoh, Guna, and Panna scored low on climate resilience in Madhya Pradesh.

MPs capital lags behind

In Madhya Pradesh, low-resilience districts include Bhopal, Morena, Panna, Ratlam, Sidhi, Guna, Tikamgarh, and Jhabua. These areas have weak infrastructure, low forest cover, frequent droughts, and poor access to services like education and healthcare. They also lack robust support systems for farmers and markets.

“Our findings show that districts like Bhopal and Morena scored low on resilience,” said Adhav. “Despite being urban or semi-urban, these districts face rising temperatures and falling rainfall during key crop seasons. For example, Kharif precipitation in Bhopal shows a negative trend, which impacts food production.”

The district-level analysis showed that many parts of Madhya Pradesh fall into the low or moderate climate resilience category. Barwani, Mandsaur, and Damoh also appeared among low-performing districts. On the other hand, a few districts like Narsinghpur, Dhar, and Narmadapuram performed well, showing stronger resilience.

A separate 2023 study published in the Journal of Water and Climate Change looked closely at long-term rainfall patterns across Madhya Pradesh. Using high-resolution IMD data from 439 grid points, the study found that rainfall is declining during monsoon, winter, and post-monsoon seasons, while pre-monsoon rainfall is rising.

The biggest shifts in rainfall occurred in 1955 (pre-monsoon), 1986 (winter), 1987 (post-monsoon), and 1998 (monsoon and annual). After 1998, average annual rainfall dropped from 1,769 mm to 1,401 mm, sharply reducing water availability for farming.

“Trends matter,” Adhav explained. “If temperature increases consistently over decades, it will likely keep rising unless there’s a major shift. For Kharif temperature, Bhopal shows a consistent rise, which could continue for another 10 to 15 years.”

The study also calculated the return periods for droughts. Some districts face moderate to severe droughts more frequently than others. This kind of long-term data helps understand climate risk at the ground level and guides decision-making for future planning.

Districts with high exposure and low adaptability are more vulnerable to crop failure, water shortages, and loss of income. These districts face a double burden—they experience repeated climate shocks but also lack systems to recover from them.

Local efforts matters

Local actions can make a difference. For example, improving irrigation in Dindori, fixing road connectivity in Sheopur, or boosting institutional support in Damoh are steps that directly respond to local needs. The findings stress that climate adaptation efforts should be district-specific, not based solely on state or national plans.

“We didn’t forecast future climate, but the 43-year trend points to persistent climatic stress,” said Adhav. “If these patterns continue, the impact will likely deepen, especially in districts already struggling with poor infrastructure or forest loss.”

Compared to other states, Madhya Pradesh shows distinct vulnerabilities. “Some of this comes from ecological loss, like deforestation,” said Adhav. “But a significant part also comes from weak institutional support—poor access to crop insurance, education, and irrigation infrastructure.”

An analysis by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) supports this view. It found that farmers in high-risk districts pay 70% higher insurance premiums than those in low-risk areas but receive 20% less in compensation. The gap between what they pay and what they get undermines the credibility of the scheme.

“This completely defeats the purpose of the scheme,” said Amit Khurana, Programme Director at CSE. “The most vulnerable farmers should pay less and get better support, not the other way around.”

The government launched the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana in 2016 to insure half of India’s farmland by 2020. But by 2021, only 30% of agricultural land was covered. The scheme, billed as the world’s largest crop insurance program, has failed to meet its original targets in many states.

CSE’s findings show that insurance support is weakest in places where it is needed most. Farmers either receive too little or face long delays in getting payouts. This creates mistrust and discourages participation in the program.

Public policy expert Donthi Narasimha Reddy said, “From the farmers’ perspective, the biggest issue is transparency. They either don’t get a payout, or the amount is too low to make a difference.”

These problems add to the risk faced by communities already struggling with climate stress. Without strong institutional support, even moderate climate events can cause long-term damage.

The resilience index developed by the researchers highlights which districts need immediate attention. High-resilience districts like Narsinghpur, Dhar, and Narmadapuram show what works—better forest cover, working roads, and early warning systems. Medium-resilience districts like Rewa, Balaghat, and Sehore have average readiness and room for improvement.

Low-resilience districts, like Jhabua, Panna, and Neemuch, lack both natural buffers and human systems. These areas need focused policy support. Fixing roads, investing in schools, improving water supply, and offering financial protection to farmers are some ways to help them adapt.

A resilient district isn’t one without climate shocks, it’s one that can recover from them. It needs functional infrastructure, active community networks, and support systems that kick in when needed. Without these, even minor shocks turn into major setbacks.

Low-resilience districts require focused policy attention

High-resilience districts like Narmadapuram, Dhar, and Narsinghpur demonstrate strong coping strategies and better adaptation. Districts with medium resilience, such as Balaghat, Rewa, and Sehore, show average preparedness. Low-resilience districts, including Jhabua, Neemuch, and Panna, face high vulnerability and require focused policy attention.

These numbers back up the study’s conclusion: districts in Madhya Pradesh face uneven climate challenges and need location-specific action plans to strengthen resilience.

“Districts with low resilience scores face a double burden,” said Adhav. “They are hit hard by droughts and shifting rainfall, but they also don’t have the systems in place to recover quickly. These areas need urgent attention.”

Only 28.71% of the districts in the study were rated “highly resilient.” Another 43.91% had moderate resilience. But 36 districts about 30%, lack both strong institutions and natural buffers like forests and water bodies.

“A resilient district has working roads, early warning systems, and support for farmers. It can take a hit from a storm or drought and bounce back. But a district without these things will suffer even more from smaller events,” said Adhav.

Districts that performed better, like Ahilya Nagar, Sangli, and Kolhapur in Maharashtra or Raipur in Chhattisgarh, benefit from stronger schools, better market access, and more government support. These factors reduce vulnerability and speed up recovery.

In contrast, Sheopur in Madhya Pradesh and Durg in Chhattisgarh are under stress from both environmental changes and poor infrastructure. They lack reliable roads, education access, and diverse livelihoods, making them less able to cope.

Dr. Hari Nath Singh, co-author of the study, said most climate policies miss local needs. “Most climate plans are made at the national or state level,” he said. “But climate risk varies a lot, even within the same state. We need plans made at the district level.”

Adhav agreed. “Resilience is not just about having fancy tools. It’s about people, local systems, and the ability to act fast when trouble comes.”

The study recommends water harvesting, crop diversification, and stronger rural services. It also stresses the need for community-led planning and better protection of natural resources. These steps, grounded in local realities, are key to building real climate resilience in Madhya Pradesh.

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