Extreme heat could impact Paris Olympics 2024, What you need to know

The Paris area will hold this year's Summer Olympics between July 26 and August 10, right during the peak of the seasonal temperature cycle. There exists a risk of a heat wave, which consequentially endangers athletes in some disciplines, volunteers, and visitors, states research published in the journal 'Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science'.

Since the extreme event of 2003, some intense heat waves have swept the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. These heat waves, often surprising, have negatively impacted both the environment and biodiversity, as well as human health.

Intense heat waves

In recent years, scorching summers, surpassing all historical heat records, have occurred in the French capital, particularly. The summer of 2019 recorded the highest temperature ever observed in Paris: 42.6ºC. However, the heatwave of 2003, which caused an estimated 15,000 people in France to die due to high temperatures, was the deadliest.

The researchers intend to raise awareness about these unprecedented events, which our societies are poorly prepared for, despite designing adaptation measures based on previous events. They added, "We could extend these results to other areas of the world."

The study estimates that the chance of an extreme heat event occurring in Paris during the Olympics, which will take place from July 26 to August 11, 2024, is between 6% and 37%, depending on the emission scenario and the model used. This is higher than the historical average of 3%, and the projected average of 4% for the 21st century.

The study also projects that the intensity and duration of the heat waves could increase, with maximum temperatures reaching up to 40°C (104°F) and lasting for up to six days.

The study, which analyzed data from 14 CMIP6 models and four shared socio-economic pathways scenarios, highlights the potential health risks posed by prolonged heat waves, especially during large outdoor events like the Olympics. Researchers emphasize that while their findings are not a direct forecast for the 2024 Olympics, they serve as a risk assessment for extreme heat events in a changing climate.

Furthermore, the study suggests that heatwaves in the Paris region are often associated with specific atmospheric circulation patterns, which can exacerbate health risks by trapping air pollutants. The addition of warm air transported from North Africa can further elevate temperatures, posing significant challenges for public health and safety.

Heat stress

The researchers begin their report emphasizing that they anticipate tens of thousands of international visitors will stay outdoors during the Paris Games, potentially exposing themselves to heat stress. They highlight that the 2021 Tokyo Games recorded the highest temperature since 1952, exceeding the average temperature in Paris in 2003.

They indicate that the Tokyo heat wave hugely impacted athletes and volunteers during outdoor competitions. However, the crisis the coronavirus pandemic caused limited the foreign public's exposure at the Japanese event.

The researchers, who estimated the worst heat wave scenarios in France in July and August, say that society must anticipate the risks of an intense heat wave in the current decades; essentially, the worst case scenario.

French scientists carried out climate simulations that show the risk of a two-week heat wave during the Paris Olympics is even greater than the record wave recorded in the French capital in 2003.

Above all, experts fear for spectators, whom they deem more vulnerable than athletes. They recommend adjusting the schedules of some outdoor events to evade peak temperatures. Events in disciplines like athletics - particularly the marathon - and other disciplines like tennis, beach volleyball, horse riding, field hockey, or cycling are of particular concern.

Balcony collapses pose a threat

France has witnessed several tragic incidents of balcony failures in recent years, resulting in deaths and injuries. In 2016, a balcony collapsed during a party in Angers, killing four people. In 2023, two people were seriously hurt when their balcony fell off in Paris.

These accidents are raising concerns about the safety of the old buildings in Paris, where they will hold the Olympics 2024 and the Paralympics 2024 from July 26 to September 8. Many of the venues and accommodations are located in historic structures that date back centuries. The law obliges the owners, landlords and managers of these buildings to maintain the balconies in good shape.

However, the challenge of ensuring balcony safety is one of the many difficulties that the local authorities face as they get ready for the first Games in Paris in a century.

Excess mortality

The particularity among all of the above is this: another study published a year ago in 'The Lancet Planet Health' identifies Paris as the European city at the highest risk of heat-related death. This research scrutinized 854 urban areas across 30 countries and found that Paris had the highest rates of death due to heat for all age groups, especially people over 85 years of age. The study also analyzed the impacts due to cold.

The research's results indicate that Eastern Europe experiences greater impacts of both cold and heat, and countries such as Croatia, Bulgaria, and Romania show greater vulnerability than Western European countries.

Western Europe generally had lower excess mortality than other regions, including northern and southern Europe, except in a few very large cities, such as London (United Kingdom) and Paris (France).

The report states that Northern European countries demonstrated the lowest heat risks and also a relatively low vulnerability to cold, considering their much greater exposure to low temperatures. This suggests they can adapt to rigid cold climates, especially in comparison to the countries in the eastern region.

The authors noted that they also found impacts associated with heat in Mediterranean locations, although they observed a smaller impact when they took age differences into account. They noticed some differences within countries as well, linking these to variations in local climate and the effects of urban heat islands.

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