How climate change & canals are turning Thar desert Into farmland?

India’s Thar Desert has changed fast in the past two decades. It recorded a 38 percent rise in vegetation and a 64 percent jump in rainfall from 2000 to 2023. Scientists say no other desert on Earth has seen a similar rise in rain, greenery, and people in the same period.

Rain, crops, cities reshape Thar Desert

A new study from Indian and U.S. researchers has tracked these changes using satellite and field data. It found that the Thar not only greened up, but also experienced the fastest growth in cropland, cities, and population among the world’s 14 major deserts.

“What we’re seeing in the Thar is a classic case study of the human capacity to adapt to extreme harsh environments,” said Dr. Vimal Mishra, who led the study. He heads the Water and Climate Lab at the Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar.

The research showed that rainfall increased across the desert, especially in the northwest, after 2000. The desert received an average 4.4 mm more rainfall every year. “The annual rainfall increased steadily in most parts of the region,” said Mishra. “This rise in precipitation is unusual and important.”

Satellite data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) system confirmed the rainfall trends. The study found that four deserts—Thar, Arabian, Negev, and Eastern Gobi—saw more rainfall in this period. Only the Namib desert in Africa grew drier. The other nine major deserts remained mostly unchanged.

Rain and groundwater drive vegetation growth

Thar’s vegetation also expanded fast. Between 1980 and 2015, cropland in the region rose by 74 percent. Irrigated land rose by 24 percent. The researchers linked this growth to two main factors: more rain and more groundwater use.

Groundwater now plays a major role in growing crops. “At the annual scale, groundwater accounts for 55 percent of the water used by plants,” said Mishra. “Rainfall supplies the remaining 45 percent.”

During the summer monsoon, rainfall provides most of the water for crops. But in the winter and dry months, farmers rely heavily on groundwater. “In the non-monsoon season, 67 percent of the greening comes from groundwater,” the study said.

Scientists also credited human efforts—like building irrigation canals and better access to electricity—for making farming possible in dry areas. The Indira Gandhi Canal, which carries water from the Beas and Sutlej rivers into Rajasthan, has helped transform many parts of the desert.

“These changes show how appropriate policies and investments in infrastructure can help societies thrive even under harsh conditions, with some help from natural processes,” said Mishra.

But the study also raised concerns. It warned that the fast rise in groundwater use has led to depletion. The team studied well data from the Central Ground Water Board and satellite readings from the GRACE mission. It found falling groundwater levels in many areas—especially where greening has risen the most.

“Most wells show a steady drop in water levels,” said Mishra. “We’re extracting more water than nature can recharge.”

Urban expansion reshapes Thar Desert rapidly

Urban growth has also reshaped the region. Between 1985 and 2020, many towns and cities in Thar expanded by 50 to 800 percent. The desert now holds the highest population density of any desert in the world. From 2000 to 2020, Thar saw the fastest population growth among all deserts studied. The Arabian Desert came next.

“This population growth is clear from the expansion of cropland and urban areas,” said Mishra. “The availability of water and cheaper land likely encouraged migration and farming.”

The desert spans about 200,000 square kilometers across Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, and Haryana, and spills over into southeast Pakistan. It now stands out among global deserts for its triple growth—in people, rainfall, and vegetation.

Climate change may partly explain the extra rainfall. But Mishra called it a “mixed blessing.”

“Climate change can limit water availability in some areas, while in others, it increases rain in bursts,” he said. “In Thar, large-scale monsoon changes, together with human efforts like irrigation, have shaped the current pattern.”

But he also warned that more rain may not always help. “Future rainfall may come as extreme events, causing floods,” Mishra said. “And heatwaves may become more frequent.”

Rising heat threatens health and work

Other scientists have echoed this concern. “This region may face higher health risks and less capacity for outdoor work due to rising temperatures,” said Ramakrishna Nemani, a co-author based at the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute at NASA.

The researchers projected that annual rainfall in Thar could rise by 20 to 50 percent in the coming decades, depending on global emissions. But they also expected more days of extreme heat and higher energy demands for cooling and irrigation.

“The Thar is unique today, but that doesn’t mean it’s safe from future stress,” said Hiren Solanki, another co-author of the study.

While the greening looks positive now, the team stressed the need for balance. “We need better management of water, land, and city planning,” said Mishra. “Otherwise, the very forces that drove growth may trigger crisis.”

The study, published in Cell Reports Sustainability, offers a rare view of how people and nature have together reshaped a desert. It also raises questions for policymakers, scientists, and residents about how long this model can last.

“Greening a desert is not easy,” said Mishra. “But keeping it green might be harder.”

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