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Multi-year droughts are worsening due to climate change: Study

A study warns that multi-year droughts are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change, affecting vast areas, ecosystems, and water supply. Scientists stress the urgent need for global action to mitigate and adapt to these worsening conditions

By Ground Report Desk
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Haveri Karnataka Drought Situation

Multi year droughts are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change. Photo credit: Ground Report

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A recent study shows that climate change has made long-lasting, multi-year droughts (MYDs) more frequent and intense. These droughts can last years or decades, leading to severe environmental and social consequences. As the planet warms, these extreme dry periods are expected to increase.

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Researchers analysed data from 1980 to 2018 and found that the global land area affected by MYDs has been expanding at an alarming rate of about 50,000 square kilometres per year.

Over 40 years, scientists identified 13,176 MYD events lasting at least two consecutive years. They observed these droughts are growing larger, with rising temperatures worsening the situation.

Scientists from the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research (WSL), the National University of Singapore, ETH Zurich, the Institute of Science and Technology Austria, and the University of Bern conducted the study. Their findings were published in Science Journal on January 16, 2025.

Multi-year droughts are extreme weather events significantly reducing soil moisture and river water levels. These prolonged water shortages can devastate crops, kill trees, destroy ecosystems, and reduce water supply for people and agriculture.

Researchers highlighted that during an MYD, water shortages can exceed ecosystem limits, causing extensive plant loss and land degradation.

The study showed that the ten most severe MYDs have affected continents worldwide, except Australia. Recent MYDs occurred in central Chile, the western United States, and Australia.

The areas affected by extreme droughts have been growing at a rate of 16,704 square kilometres per year for the worst MYDs and 49,279 square kilometres per year for the top 500 MYDs. The most impacted ecosystems have been temperate grasslands, which are vulnerable to prolonged dry periods.

One of the longest MYDs occurred in the eastern Congo Basin from 2010 to 2018, covering 1,494,226 square kilometres. In the southwestern Amazon, a severe drought lasted nine years, peaking in 2015.

Before its peak, the affected area expanded from 112,540 square kilometres in 2010 to 212,925 square kilometres in 2014—nearly the size of the United Kingdom. The MYDs in central Africa and the southwestern Amazon persisted until 2018, affecting large regions.

The researchers found that the most severe MYDs were linked to El Niño events. The largest drought-affected areas occurred after major El Niño years, including 1998, 2010, and 2015. This suggests that El Niño intensifies prolonged droughts, not only in tropical regions but globally.

Scientists warn that multi-year droughts will likely become more common throughout the 21st century, increasing in severity, duration, and impact. Their study provides critical information to help governments and organisations improve drought preparedness and mitigation strategies.

The findings emphasise the urgent need for global cooperation to address and adapt to the escalating threat of prolonged droughts driven by climate change.

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