Earth recorded its hottest October on record

• Preliminary data shows a continuing trend of consecutive months, including October, setting global heat records.
• October's global average temperature was approximately 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit above average, the highest in the ERA5 dataset.
• Anomalous warmth was observed globally, particularly in Asia, the Arctic, Europe, Africa, and South America.
• 2023 is poised to be the record hottest year, with July as the hottest month followed by August.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has revealed in preliminary data that October was the warmest October on record. The month's globally averaged temperature was about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit above average, indicating a significant deviation from previous years. This continuous warming trend is raising concerns about the impact of climate change on our planet.

In 2023, the Earth is on track to experience its hottest year on record, with October marking the warmest month ever recorded. The global average temperature in October was approximately 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit above the norm, setting a new record in the ERA5 dataset, surpassing previous highs in 2015 and 2019.

This data, compiled from measurements taken by weather stations, ships, aircraft, and satellites, indicates that the heat was not localized but rather widespread. Regions experiencing above-average temperatures included Asia, the Canadian Arctic, the northeastern U.S., the Caribbean Sea, the northern two-thirds of South America, Europe, a large portion of Africa, and western Australia.

Conversely, areas such as central Australia, southern Chile and Argentina, the northern Rockies, Scandinavia, and northwest Russia experienced cooler than average temperatures.

Hottest October on record

As per ERA5, October 2023 was 0.44 °C warmer than 2022, and 0.40 °C warmer than the previous record (2019).

The top-5 largest record margins in ERA5, in any month:

• Sep 2023 0.50 °C
• Feb 2016 0.47 °C
• Oct 2023 0.40 °C
• Mar 2016 0.36 °C
• Dec 2015 0.34 °C

The year 2023 has been remarkable for its heat records. July was the hottest single month ever recorded since 1850, and August was the second hottest. Out of the first five months of 2023, four were among the top four warmest for their respective months. January was the only exception, ranking as the seventh warmest.

This trend of record-breaking temperatures underscores the urgent need for action on climate change.

As expected, 2023 is leading the way as the warmest year on record, as illustrated in the graph provided by climate scientist John Kennedy. According to NOAA’s global climate report for September, there’s a more than 99.5% probability that this year will set a new record for warmth.

The ECMWF's Copernicus Climate Change Service, NOAA, and NASA anticipate publishing the climate reports for October later this month.

Oct 2023 - Air & Sea Temperature Highlights

• October 2023 was the warmest October on record globally, with an average surface air temperature of 15.30°C, 0.85°C above the 1991-2020 average for October and 0.40°C above the previous warmest October, in 2019.
• The global temperature anomaly for October 2023 was the second highest across all months in the ERA5 dataset, behind September 2023.
• The month as a whole was 1.7°C warmer than an estimate of the October average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period.
• For the calendar year to date, January to October, the global mean temperature for 2023 is the highest on record, 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, and 0.10°C higher than the ten-month average for 2016, currently the warmest calendar year on record.
• For Europe, October 2023 was the fourth warmest October on record, 1.30°C higher than the 1991-2000 average.
• The average sea surface temperature for October over 60°S–60°N was 20.79°C, the highest on record for October.
• El Niño conditions continued to develop in the equatorial Pacific, although anomalies remain lower than those reached at this time of year during the development of the historically strong 1997 and 2015 events.

October 2023 – Sea Ice highlights

• October marked the sixth consecutive month that Antarctic sea ice extent remained at record low levels for the time of year, with a monthly value 11% below average.
• Arctic sea ice extent reached its 7th lowest value for October, at 12% below average.

October 2023 – Hydrological variables highlights

• In October 2023, precipitation was above average across most of Europe:  Storm Babet hit northern Europe, and storm Aline impacted Portugal and Spain, bringing heavy precipitation and flooding. 
• Beyond Europe, it was wetter than average in several regions including the southwest of North America, parts of the Arabian Peninsula, regions of Central Asia and Siberia, southeast China, Brazil, New Zealand and regions of southern Africa. Such conditions were often associated with the transit of cyclones which triggered heavy rainfall and substantial damage.
• It was drier than average in the southern USA and parts of Mexico both experiencing drought, in regions of central and easternmost Asia, and in most of the extratropical southern hemisphere, including Australia.

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