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A recent study by researchers from the Shenzhen Institute for Metrological Innovation and the Chinese University of Hong Kong, published in Frontiers in Earth Science, reveals alarming findings about the future impact of tropical cyclones in Asia.
The study suggests that by the end of the century, these cyclones could potentially double their destructive power. Scientists attribute this increased intensity to the anthropogenic climate crisis, which is making them stronger than ever.
Most dangerous natural disasters
Tropical cyclones are known to be among the most dangerous natural disasters, causing an estimated 780,000 deaths worldwide and economic losses of about $1.4 billion over the past 50 years, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
A severe cyclonic storm named Biparjoy has formed in the northeast Arabian Sea and is gradually moving north at a speed of five kilometers per hour in the past six hours. As of June 14, 2023, at 2:30 p.m. Indian time, the center of the storm was located at a specific position.
The cyclonic storm is currently approximately 260 km west-southwest of Jakhau port in Gujarat, 270 km west-southwest of Devbhoomi Dwarka, 280 km west-southwest of Naliya, 330 km west-northwest of Porbandar and 340 km south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan.
According to forecasts by the Meteorological Department, the very severe cyclonic storm Biparjoy is very likely to continue moving north-east and make landfall near the port of Jakhau in Gujarat, crossing Mandvi, Saurashtra and Kutch, as well as the coasts of Karachi in Pakistan by the evening of June 15.
During the shoreline crossing, the wind speed of the cyclonic storm is expected to range between 125 and 135 kmph, with the possibility of further increasing to 150 kmph. Considering this severe weather activity, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a red alert for the coasts of Saurashtra, Dwarka and Kutch in Gujarat.
Fishing activities banned
In anticipation of significant damage, various precautionary measures have been implemented. Media reports indicate that nearly 50,000 people residing in the coastal areas of Gujarat have been evacuated to safer locations. Fishing activities have been banned and fishermen have been advised to return to shore.
Schools in the affected regions have been closed and most oil rigs and ports have suspended operations. More than 60 train services have been cancelled. 30 teams from the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and the State Disaster Forces were deployed.
To ensure public safety in the coastal villages, staff members have been assigned roles and a total of 17 villages have been placed on alert, with officers stationed in each of them. The Gujarat government has taken additional measures by closing the National Salt Satyagraha Memorial at Dandi Beach for tourists until June 17, due to Cyclone Biparjoy approaching the coastal districts.
Heavy Rain Warning
The Department of Meteorology has issued a heavy rain warning in several regions. On June 14, light to very heavy rain is forecast over most of Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Junagadh and Morbi districts of Saurashtra and Kutch.
Similarly, on June 15, heavy to very heavy rain is expected in certain areas of Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka and Jamnagar in Gujarat, with the possibility of heavy rain in other regions. Porbandar, Rajkot, Morbi and Junagadh can also experience heavy to very heavy rain.
Also, on June 15, the remaining districts of Saurashtra and parts of northern Gujarat may witness torrential downpours.
The Met Department also forecast light to moderate rain for most of northern Gujarat and contiguous southern Rajasthan on June 16, with heavy to very heavy rain in some areas. In addition, heavy rain is expected in south-eastern Rajasthan and adjacent north Gujarat on June 17.
Risk of big losses
The approaching severe cyclonic storm 'Biparjoy' poses a significant risk to Mandvi in Gujarat and the Pakistani port city of Karachi on June 15. The Department of Meteorology warned of the complete destruction of thatched houses and severe damage to Kutcha houses in several districts.
The uprooting of electricity and communication poles in these areas is also foreseen. Train travel may be affected and there is potential for damage to standing crops, trees and gardens.
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