Climate impact: Singapore anticipates more extreme weather events

The third national climate change study of Singapore stated that it expects the average daily temperature in Singapore to rise above its current highest annual temperature of 28.4°C by 2050.

The "Third National Climate Change Study" from the Centre for Climate Research Singapore shows an expectation for the city-state to become warmer. The report indicates that under the high emission scenario, its annual mean temperatures may rise to 0.55 degrees Celsius per decade by the end of the century.

The study, known as V3, uses three different scenarios based on global socio-economic factors that affect greenhouse gas emissions to predict future climate conditions for Singapore and Southeast Asia.

For the first time, the study also includes predictions about heat stress based on the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). This measurement is more comprehensive than air temperature because it also considers humidity, wind, and solar radiation.

Singapore Braces for Climate Change

The report highlights the great variation in Singapore’s rainfall throughout the year, a variation that they expect to increase due to severe climate change. The report also predicts a significant drop in the total rainfall during the dry season to below the historical low of 314 mm about once every three years by the end of the century. Conversely, the report states that the total rainfall in the wet season could exceed the historical high of 1,507 mm.

Projections show an increase in extreme daily rainfall across all seasons, with increases ranging from around 6 to 92 per cent in the inter-monsoon months of April and May. Moreover, more frequent and longer dry spells could occur, with Singapore potentially experiencing an average of one dry spell every 10 to 60 months by the end of the century.

The report also warns of a rise in sea levels. Projections show that the mean sea level around Singapore will rise by 0.23m to 1.15m by the end of the century, and could increase up to around 2m by 2150 under the high emissions scenario. This increase is primarily due to a better understanding of the contribution of the melting of the Antarctic ice sheets to global sea levels.

In response to these challenges, Singapore is taking steps to mitigate the impacts of climate change. The country is committed to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 as part of the Singapore Green Plan. The government is also proactively planning for adaptation to ensure preparedness for the impacts of climate change.

The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) plans to share the data from the report with ASEAN Member States and collaborate with international entities and the wider scientific community for joint research.

Singapore set to experience rise in temperature

Earlier predictions suggest that Singapore is likely to experience a rise in temperature. The annual average temperature has been increasing at a rate of 0.24 degrees Celsius every decade for the past 40 years. Under a high emissions scenario, they project it to increase at a rate of 0.55 degrees Celsius per decade by the end of the century. Therefore, the annual average temperature might increase by anywhere between 0.6 and 5 degrees Celsius.

The Singaporean authorities plan to share the data from the report with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. They also encourage sharing data with international entities and the wider scientific community to conduct joint research. Singapore commits to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 as part of its efforts to combat climate change.

The frequency of very hot days is also expected to increase. Over the past 40 years, Singapore has experienced an average of 21.4 days per year where the maximum daily temperature exceeded 35 degrees Celsius. By the end of the century, we could see anywhere between 41 and 351 days per year with such high temperatures.

Additionally, warm nights, where temperatures exceed 26.3 degrees Celsius, are also expected to become more common. From an average of 76 nights per year over the past 40 years, Singapore could experience warm nights for most of the year by the end of the century.

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