The vast majority (80%) of the 50 provinces facing the greatest climate risk to their physical infrastructure by 2050 are in China, the US and India, according to a ranking released Monday by the global report on climate risk released February 20, 2023.
9 Indian states at risk of climate change
In India, Punjab, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Kerala and Assam being the most vulnerable, the ranking indicates that India’s commercial capital Mumbai is at high risk. India has nine states in the 50 high-risk states; China has 26, and the United States has five.
The report, XDI Gross Domestic Weather Risk, is model-based and is primarily intended to assist investors with their choice of long-term investment destinations.
It shows that 14 Indian states will remain in the top 100 climate-prone territories in the world by 2050, out of a list of more than 2,600 regions.
A new report covers more than 2,600 territories around the world and looks at 8 different weather-related hazards: river and surface flooding, coastal flooding (coastal flooding), extreme heat, wildfires, ground movement (drought-related), extreme wind and thawing by freezing.
This study is focused on large cities in the world and on changes in built land. To do this, it uses global climate models, combined with local meteorological and environmental data and engineering archetypes to calculate probable damage.
The scenario, among other characteristics, will take place with a higher average global temperature than in pre-industrial times and it is expected that the world will be 3ºC warmer by the end of the century.
The conclusion of the report also explains that the “locomotive” cities, that is, the most developed and in many cases also the most polluting, will be the ones that are mainly affected by climate change. China and the United States will bear the greatest economic costs in that regard.
The classification of physical weather risks for use by policymakers and investors is carried out by XDI (Cross Dependency Initiative), a leading provider of analysis of physical weather risks.
Proportion of buildings at risk of damage
The study analyzes the proportion of buildings at risk of damage, and its approach yields new information on the risk in residential, industrial and commercial areas that coincide with the expected escalation of extreme weather due to climate change.
The data is particularly important to investors, as extensive built-up areas overlap with high levels of economic activity and real estate wealth. At this point, it is crucial to know the climate-resilient investment, together with the adaptation measures and infrastructure planning carried out.
The findings reiterate the importance of valuing physical climate risk in financial markets, given the investment of capital and assets in provinces with vulnerabilities.
Extreme weather due to climate change
Globally, most damage is caused by river and surface flooding or flooding combined with coastal flooding. The first global analysis of the built environment exposes the vulnerability of economic centers to extreme weather due to climate change.
“Asia dominates the list of provinces at risk with more than half (114) of the top 200 in 2050 in this region, with particular emphasis on China and India.
According to the analysis, 80% of the 50 states and provinces most at risk in 2050 are in China, the US and India,” states a summary of the analysis published by Climate Trends, a capacity development and consulting initiative based on the research.
Among the top 100 in the world
- Punjab and Sindh in Pakistan.
- Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Rajasthan and Maharashtra in India.
- Jawa Timur, Jawa Barat and Jakarta province in Indonesia.
- Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro in Brazil.
- Buenos Aires in Argentina.
- Lower Saxony and Bavaria in Germany.
- Flanders in Belgium.
- Veneto (headquarters of Venice) and Lombardy in Italy.
- Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland in Australia.
- Aichi and Fukuoka in Japan.
- Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam.
- Ontario in Canada.
The authors of the report stressed that many of these cities are critical to the functioning of the global economy, as they play a key role in industry supply chains and are also home to very large populations.
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