Climate change, Not El Nino, to blame for South America’s heatwaves

A recent study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group has found that global warming and consequent climate change, rather than the El Nino climate pattern, were responsible for South America’s untimely and devastating heatwaves and subsequent wildfires.

Climate Change amplifies South America’s Heat

The WWA is a global consortium of climate scientists who study the role played by human-induced global warming and the consequential climate change in the occurrence, frequency, and intensity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, cold spells, extreme rainfall, floods, and storms.

Unusual heatwaves hit the continent in early spring this year, following a hotter-than-usual winter season. These arrived on the heels of unprecedented and record-breaking September heat around the world. The global average temperature in September at 16.38°C was 1.75°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) average, the highest on record and breaking the previous record by 0.5°C.

“Temperatures exceeded 40°C in Brazil, Bolivia, Argentina, and Paraguay, affecting millions of people,” according to a press release by the study authors. The heightened temperatures induced at least 36 wildfires in Bolivia, 20 in Paraguay, and several more throughout Brazil.

Though they have reported only four deaths from Sao Paolo, Brazil, we can only know the actual impact of the heatwaves in the months to come after a proper assessment.

Global Warming Intensifies Future Heatwaves

WWA scientists from Brazil, Argentina, Netherlands, United States and United Kingdom assessed 10-day maximum temperatures throughout the impacted region of South America in August and September. They found that climate change made these heatwaves at least 100 times more likely and increased temperatures by 1.4 to 4.3 degrees Celsius.

Compared to the impact of climate change, the direct influence of the ongoing El Nino phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was small. “With future global warming, heat events like this will become even more common and hotter. At global mean temperatures of 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a heat event like this would be about another five times more likely and 1.1 to 1.6°C hotter than today,” said the study.

"“Heat kills, particularly in spring before people have acclimatized to it. In early spring, temperatures above 40°C are incredibly extreme,” Julie Arrighi, director at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, stated. “Unless we take ambitious action to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, springtime heat will only become more intense,” said Izidine Pinto, researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.

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