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In a recent analysis conducted by climate experts, alarming trends of rising temperatures across India have been identified, particularly during March and April. These findings significantly affect public health and safety, especially during cultural celebrations like Holi. As global warming continues to impact weather patterns, the risk of encountering dangerously hot conditions during Holi festivities has increased substantially in recent decades.
March and April are warming across India
The analysis, based on data from 1970 to 2023, reveals a consistent warming trend across various regions of India during March and April. Notably, northern and western regions have experienced the fastest rates of warming, with temperature increases of up to 2.8°C in Jammu and Kashmir during March. Similarly, Mizoram saw a significant rise of 1.9°C in April, highlighting the widespread nature of this warming phenomenon.
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Dr. Andrew Pershing, VP for Science at Climate Central, emphasized, "There has been an abrupt transition in the temperatures from cool winter-like temperatures to much warmer conditions now. These warming trends in India are a clear sign of the impacts of human-led climate change."
India has increased risk of extreme heat during Holi
One of the concerning aspects identified in the analysis is the heightened risk of extreme heat during Holi, a popular spring festival celebrated across India. Historically, temperatures above 40°C during late March were rare, with only a few states experiencing such conditions in the 1970s. However, in the current climate scenario, nine states now face an increased probability of surpassing 40°C during this period.
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Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Bihar, which already had a more than 5% chance of reaching 40°C in the past, are now joined by Rajasthan, Gujarat, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh in facing heightened heat risks during Holi festivities.
Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, acknowledged, "There is no denying the fact that climate change is behind the soaring mercury levels. Heatwaves in March were rare but with increasing global warming, the probability of heatwaves or high temperatures has also increased."
To assess the localized impact, the analysis considered changes in temperature probabilities for 51 major cities across India. Shockingly, 37 cities now have at least a 1% chance of experiencing temperatures above 40°C during late March, with 11 cities facing a 10% or greater probability.
Center cities face extreme heat
Except Madurai, the 15 cities with the highest risk of a day in late March being above 40° occur in the center of the country. Bilaspur now has the highest risk (31%), and the city’s chance is now 2.5 times higher than in the 1970s. The largest change in risk between the two periods occurs in Indore. While the risk is relatively low (8%), it is 8.1 times higher than in the past. Madurai and Bhopal also have very large changes (7.1 and 5.5 times higher, respectively) and relatively high overall risk (19% and 12%).
| City | Probability of >40°C (past ~1970) | Probability of >40°C (current ~2024) | Probability Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bilaspur | 12% | 31% | 2.5 |
| Nagpur | 13% | 27% | 2.1 |
| Bhilai | 10% | 20% | 2.0 |
| Kota | 5% | 20% | 3.6 |
| Raipur | 11% | 20% | 1.8 |
| Madurai | 3% | 19% | 7.1 |
| Jodhpur | 3% | 14% | 4.5 |
| Jabalpur | 3% | 14% | 4.2 |
| Bhopal | 2% | 12% | 5.5 |
| Vadodara | 10% | 12% | 1.2 |
| Varanasi | 12% | 10% | 0.9 |
| Gwalior | 5% | 10% | 1.8 |
| Mirzapur | 11% | 10% | 0.9 |
| Prayagraj | 8% | 10% | 1.1 |
| Indore | 1% | 8% | 8.1 |
Dr. Akshay Deoras, a Research Scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, UK, noted, "Global warming is favouring an early arrival of the hot weather season in India. The concentration of greenhouse gases responsible for global warming is much larger now, turning the planet into a furnace, with Indian hilly states facing the brunt of it."
The implications of these warming trends extend beyond discomfort, posing serious health risks, especially during outdoor festivities like Holi. Increased exposure to extreme heat can lead to heat-related illnesses, dehydration, and heat strokes, particularly affecting vulnerable populations such as older people and children.
Climate Central analyzes Holi temperatures
Climate Central has utilized its innovative Climate Shift Index to delve into the escalating challenges posed by rising temperatures in India. The Climate Shift Index serves as a robust tool for quantifying the impact of climate change on daily air temperatures, offering crucial insights into shifting temperature dynamics.
In their recent analysis focused on April 1, which coincides with the Holi festival in 2024, Climate Central explored the frequency of different temperatures over 31 days. This timeframe aligns with the traditional Holi celebrations, providing valuable data regarding temperature trends during this significant cultural event.
By leveraging data from the reference climate period of 1991-2020, characterized by an average global mean temperature of 0.88°C above pre-industrial levels, Climate Central established a baseline for temperature frequencies. The Climate Shift Index also incorporates estimations of how local temperatures respond to a 1°C change in global temperatures, derived from trends spanning from 1950 to 2020.
Using this comprehensive approach, Climate Central adjusted the reference frequency distribution to reflect the current climate scenario, marked by a global mean temperature of 1.3°C, as well as the past climate conditions circa 1970, with a global mean temperature of 0.24°C. These adjustments facilitated the calculation of probabilities related to encountering daily temperatures exceeding 40°C, a critical threshold associated with extreme heat events.
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