Only 3 Years Left: New Study Warns Climate Clock Is Running Out

The world is running out of time. New scientific data shows that we are less than three years away from crossing a critical climate threshold. If current trends continue, the planet will blow past the 1.5°C global warming target set by the Paris Agreement, putting billions at greater risk from extreme weather, rising seas, and economic shocks.

Time Left: Less Than Three Years

The world has less than three years left before it burns through the remaining carbon budget needed to keep global warming below 1.5°C. That warning comes from a major new study led by Professor Piers Forster of the University of Leeds, published in Earth System Science Data.

The study estimates the remaining carbon budget at 130 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the start of 2025. At current emission rates, that will be exhausted before the end of 2027.

“Our third annual edition of Indicators of Global Climate Change shows that both warming levels and rates of warming are unprecedented,” said Forster. “Continued record-high emissions of greenhouse gases mean more of us are experiencing unsafe levels of climate impacts.”

The report was compiled by over 60 international scientists. It tracks ten climate indicators, including surface temperature, greenhouse gas emissions, and now, for the first time, sea-level rise and global land precipitation.

In 2024, the observed rise in global temperature reached 1.52°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Of that, 1.36°C was caused by human activities, mainly the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.

“The level of human-caused climate change is at an all-time high,” the study found. This warming, combined with natural climate variations, drove global temperatures to record levels.

Warming Rising, Seas Getting Higher

The Paris Agreement’s target of keeping warming below 1.5°C hasn’t been officially breached. That limit refers to a long-term average. But scientists say the world is on a path that will make it nearly impossible to stay under that threshold.

Between 2015 and 2024, global temperatures were 1.24°C higher than in pre-industrial times. Human activity was responsible for 1.22°C of that warming.

Annual emissions over the past decade averaged 53 billion tons of CO2. In 2024, international aviation emissions returned to pre-pandemic levels. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are rising, while cooling aerosols like sulfur dioxide have declined, further accelerating warming.

“The window to stay within 1.5°C is essentially shut,” said Forster. “Even if we can bring temperatures back down in the future, it will be a long and difficult road.”

The report points out that while governments react quickly to economic crises using real-time data, they are far slower to respond to climate data.

“If we treated climate data the way we treat financial markets, there would be panic after every update,” the authors wrote.

The impacts are already severe. Africa faces worsening droughts, floods, and food insecurity. The ocean is absorbing over 90% of the excess heat from greenhouse gases.

“The ocean reached record values globally in 2024,” said Dr. Karina Von Schuckmann of Mercator Ocean International. “Warmer waters lead to rising sea levels and intensified weather extremes, and can have devastating impacts on marine ecosystems and the communities that rely on them.”

Global sea level has risen by 26 mm between 2019 and 2024, doubling the long-term rate seen since 1900. The total rise since then is now around 228 mm.

“Sea-level rise may seem small, but it’s already making storm surges more damaging and causing more coastal erosion,” said Dr. Aimée Slangen of the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research. “And we’ve already locked in more of it for the coming decades.”

Despite the urgency, global political action remains sluggish.

Most Countries Missing Climate Deadline

By July 2025, only 25 countries had submitted updated national climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). That’s just 20 percent of global emissions. In Africa, only Somalia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe have submitted plans.

Of those submitted, only the UK’s is in line with the Paris Agreement, according to climate experts.

These national plans matter. They outline short- and medium-term commitments to reduce emissions. They also set a direction for policy and investment, and can help align climate action with development goals.

“Aligning climate plans with development could lift 175 million people out of poverty,” said Forster.

But most of the world is still lagging. Just five G20 countries, Canada, Brazil, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, have submitted new plans. The G20 accounts for 80 percent of global emissions.

Few Plans Cut Fossil Fuels

Only ten of the submitted plans commit to phasing out fossil fuels.

Dr. Joeri Rogelj, a climate policy expert at Imperial College London, said the next decade is decisive. “The window to stay within 1.5°C is rapidly closing,” he said. “Every small increase in warming matters.”

Rogelj added, “Emissions over the next decade will determine how soon and how fast 1.5°C of warming is reached. They need to be swiftly reduced to meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.”

Meanwhile, Earth’s energy balance is tipping dangerously. The rate of global heating between 2012 and 2024 has doubled compared to the 1970s and 1980s. That extra heat is melting ice, thawing permafrost, and raising sea levels.

The last decade has been the hottest on record. Human-caused warming rose at a rate of 0.27°C per decade between 2015 and 2024. Maximum land temperatures rose even faster, reaching 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.

While global conferences like COP30 offer a chance to correct course, success depends on credible, urgent action.

“There is no doubt we are in dangerous waters,” said Forster. “Every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions matters. The data is clear. Now governments must act.”

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