50% of all ice in Alps will have disappeared in 26 years

Even if we were to halt global warming immediately, the volume of ice in the European Alps is projected to decrease by 34% by 2050, which is only 26 years away. If the temperature continues to rise at the rate of the last two decades, the reduction in ice could reach 50%.

This forecast was made possible by a new computer model developed by scientists from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment at the University of Lausanne (UNIL) in Switzerland, in collaboration with the University of Grenoble, ETHZ, and the University of Zurich.

In the most optimistic, yet unlikely scenario where global warming would have ceased in 2022, the Alpine glaciers would still experience significant losses due to the inertia of the climate-glacial system.

However, this prediction is far from a realistic future scenario, as greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase worldwide.

In reality, more than half of the ice volume will disappear

The study offers another, more realistic forecast showing that almost half (46%) of the volume of ice from the Alps will have disappeared by 2050 if there are no drastic improvements in the global evolution of temperatures, and the melting trend of the last 20 years continues. However, if we extrapolate data from only the last ten years, this figure could even increase to 65%.

Unlike traditional models, which make estimates for the end of the century, the new study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, takes into account a shorter time frame, making it easier to see the magnitude of the changes that are coming and, therefore, Therefore, it serves to urge governments to take immediate action.

The disappearance of kilometers and kilometers of ice, which will have serious consequences for the population, infrastructure, and water reserves, makes these estimates especially relevant.

Data that, in reality, may be worse

"Samuel Cook, UNIL researcher and first author of the study, says, "We stopped using the data to build the scenarios in 2022, which a sweltering summer followed. Therefore, we are likely to present a situation that is even worse than it appears.""

The scientists carried out simulations using artificial intelligence algorithms. They trained their model to understand physical concepts using deep learning methods and fed it real climate and glaciological data.

"Machine learning is revolutionizing the integration of complex data into our models," says Guillaume Jouvet, professor at the FGSE and co-author of the study. "Where the process used to be notoriously complicated and computationally expensive, it's becoming more precise and efficient now."

Keep Reading

• How retreat of Machoi glacier impacting lives in Kashmir?
• Hathiya Kheda: Four Villages In MP Waiting For Roads
• “Give Plastic, Take Gold” Initiative In Sadiwara Village Of Kashmir

Follow Ground Report for Environment and Under-Reported issues in India. Connect with us on Facebook, Twitter, Koo App, Instagram, Whatsapp and YouTube. Write us on [email protected].