2024 likely to surpass 2023 as the hottest ever: Reports

Experts predict that 2024 could be the hottest year ever due to climate change and the upcoming El Niño, which increases temperatures.

According to meteorologists, 2024 is likely to be hotter than 2023 due to climate change and an ongoing El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects the current El Niño to last until at least April 2024. Since the effects of an El Niño typically last until the year after it forms, experts believe 2024 will be even hotter.

Climate scientist Daniel Swain believes 2024 may be warmer than 2023 because El Niño may be more influential for longer and because of the long-term warming trend.

The three-month period from June through August 2023 was the hottest on record, with an average temperature of 16.8 degrees Celsius (62.2F). This is 0.66C above average. 

The U.K. Met Office predicts that 2024 could be even hotter, possibly 1.46 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, and maybe even up to 1.58 degrees C. The goal of the Paris Agreement is to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees C.

Experts expect the global average temperature for 2023 – measured as the difference between 1850-1900, a proxy for the Industrial Revolution – to be below 1.5°C. They forecast the average global temperature for 2024 to be between 1.34°C and 1.58°C – with an average estimate of 1.46°C – above the average for the pre-industrial period.

Adam Scaife, a scientist at the Met Office, reminds us that even if we temporarily go above 1.5 degrees C, it doesn’t mean we’ve failed the Paris Agreement. However, the first year over 1.5 degrees C will be a significant moment in our climate history.

Global warming continues, breaking records

The world’s average temperature in 2024 is predicted to be between 1.34 °C and 1.58 °C higher than the average temperature from 1850-1900. This would be the 11th year in a row that temperatures have been at least 1.0 °C higher than those years.

Dr. Nick Dunstone from the Met Office, who made this prediction, said that it matches the current trend of global warming, which is increasing by 0.2 °C every ten years. A big El Niño event helps this increase. Therefore, they predict that the world temperature records will break for two consecutive years, and there's a good chance that the temperature might exceed 1.5 °C for a short time in one year.

Dr. Dunstone also said that even if we do go over 1.5 °C for a bit, it doesn’t mean we’ve failed the Paris Agreement. But, the first year that goes over 1.5 °C will be a big moment in the history of our climate.

People usually understand the Paris Agreement to mean a long-term average of 1.5 °C, not just one year. This month, the Met Office published a paper in Nature suggesting a way to immediately know when we've reached the limit set by the Paris Agreement.

This year, there have been many months where the world temperature broke records. The latest estimate for 2023 (from January to October) is +1.40 °C, which is higher than what the Met Office predicted at the end of 2022 (1.08 °C to 1.32 °C with a central estimate of 1.20 °C).

Prof. Adam Scaife commented on these predictions, saying that the El Niño event, unusually high temperatures in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, and climate change are all contributing to these extreme global temperatures.

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