As they have done annually since 2009, the Cambridge Conservation Initiative (CCI) has pinpointed the 15 most pressing conservation issues worldwide through their ‘Horizon Scan’ project. This effort involved the contributions of 31 scientists and policymakers. The findings have been documented in the ‘Trends in Evolution & Ecology’ journal.
The 15th annual review identified 15 new issues that could potentially impact global biodiversity conservation. 31 scientists and practitioners submitted 96 topics, ranking them based on their novelty and potential impact on biodiversity conservation. They discussed the top 37 issues both in person and online in September 2023 and ranked them using the same criteria.
The 15 issues we identified range from the impact of new hydrogen fuel sources to changes in the temperature of the deep-sea zone. Other emerging technologies include desktop DNA printers and the production of high-protein food from the air.
Project identified 15 key themes
New sources of hydrogen to produce energy
Recent years have seen considerable growth in the use of hydrogen as an energy source, creating demand for new sources, transport mechanisms, and generation methods.
Drilling over large areas and developing transportation infrastructure in intact ecosystems is necessary for extracting natural subsoil sources (white hydrogen). The authors of the report note that constructing leakage-resistant infrastructure is critical to ensure any transition to hydrogen economies mitigates climate change.
Production of decarbonized ammonia
Ammonia (NH 3) possesses a high energy density and serves as the precursor for many nitrogen-containing compounds. The primary use of ammonia is to produce fertilizers, primarily using fossil fuels through an energy-intensive process.
"We can form ammonia through a novel and rapid method by spraying microdroplets of water onto a magnetic graphite mesh coated with iron oxide and using nitrogen or air as the nebulizing gas. This simple and low-cost approach could be implemented in an industrial setting to decarbonize ammonia production. However, it could also result in "considerable negative environmental impacts", particularly from nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, a potent greenhouse gas (GHG)."
Foods from autotrophic hydrogen-oxidizing bacteria
Land conversion, GHG emissions, unsustainable levels of fishing, and pollution make food production a major driver of global biodiversity loss. The environmental footprint of food production will increase due to the growing demand for protein-rich foods in developing economies.
An increasing number of companies are striving to produce proteins economically using autotrophic hydrogen-oxidizing bacteria. The report emphasizes that the industry could decentralize and disassociate the increasing demand for protein, whether for human or animal consumption, from the significant and growing environmental consequences of its production, if it can expand this predominantly fossil fuel-free method quickly.
04. Acceleration of artificial photosynthesis
Global agriculture expansion for crop production drives major global biodiversity loss. The process of photosynthesis, which is energy inefficient and requires a significant land area, limits plant food production.
An electrocatalytic process performs artificial photosynthesis in which acetate, made from water, electricity and carbon dioxide, replaces the glucose that traditional photosynthesis creates and consumes. This process proves up to 18 times more effective than biological photosynthesis. Using alternative energy sources, such as wind, would further eliminate the need for sunlight.
05. Carbon mineralization techniques
The document states that applying rock dust, particularly basalt, widely on agricultural land could utilize the high concentrations of CO2 and carbonic acid in soils to mineralize carbon. It also suggests potential secondary benefits such as reducing the acidity of agricultural soils and ocean water, boosting diatom production, and decreasing eutrophication.
"But they warn that it could also lead to heavy metal contamination, especially if construction materials or mining waste produce the dust. It could also increase sedimentation and turbidity in freshwater, coastal, and marine habitats, and negatively affect species adapted to low pH soils."
06. Decrease in the population of earthworms
' Ecosystem engineers,' Earthworms, play important roles in nutrient cycling, soil fertility and ecosystem condition, and significantly contribute to global food production.
The scientists note, "The use of pesticides appears to have markedly reduced global worm populations. Such reduction is likely going to significantly affect soil health, ecosystem structure and function, and the provision of ecosystem services. It could possibly trigger cascading effects on soil structure, species diversity, and chemistry."
07. Ecoacoustics to monitor soil ecology
People commonly use acoustic technologies to assess the presence of animals on the surface. Using technology for soil ecoacoustics is a relatively new way to effectively and non-intrusively monitor the presence, composition, or number of soil invertebrates and soil quality.
Scientists deem it necessary to improve and standardize methods. They add that by combining soil ecoacoustics with other monitoring techniques, such as eDNA metabarcoding, which provides data on the composition of the soil microbiota, a more complete understanding of soil community structure and function can be achieved.
08. Forest fires
Land use associated with forest fires and biomass burning produces aerosols that reduce the absorption of solar radiation and affect cloud and precipitation patterns. Global warming increases both the number and intensity of forest fires in many regions of the world.
Aerosols can cause climate oscillations, induce changes in the position of high and low-pressure systems, and influence the distribution of temperature and pressure over large ocean areas. This, in turn, could affect species in multiple ways; for example, it could change the availability of food and could alter the extent and quality of their habitats.
09. Tabletop DNA printers
Tabletop DNA printers will be able to print sequences equivalent to that of a small viral genome within five years, posing ecological and ethical risks. The possible indirect effects of tabletop DNA printing could involve the inadvertent transfer of genetic material to wild populations, the creation of new invasive species, increases or decreases in the conversion of natural areas to agriculture, and reductions in agrochemical applications.
Of course, we could also achieve milestones such as improving the thermal tolerance of corals, reducing non-native invasive species, developing hereditary immunity to diseases in threatened species, or creating substitutes for extinct species.
10. Extrapolation of chemical toxicity assessments
Often, chemicals like neonicotinoids (insecticides) can cause significant and unforeseen ecological impacts years after their initial use. New mechanisms can potentially identify the toxicity of these chemicals before their impacts begin to show.
Advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deep learning methods can improve the effectiveness of adverse outcome pathways. This improvement facilitates the effective application of agrochemicals with a lower risk of negative impacts on non-target species.
11. NEOM Linear Skyscraper City
Saudi Arabia has designated an area of 26,500 square kilometers for the development of NEOM. The development could house nine million people and includes The Line, a linear skyscraper city with a single street.
Despite marketing it as sustainable, its dimensions (500 meters high, 200 wide and 170 kilometers long), its design (including mirrored facades and potentially, wind turbines on the roofs), and its east-west orientation at the head of the Red Sea are likely to pose a substantial risk to migratory species, particularly passerine birds. Water consumption also presents another challenge.
12. Sea urchin mortality
Researchers documented up to 99% mortality of Diadema antillarum (long-spined sea urchin) in the Caribbean. They also recorded considerable mortality of the non-native Diadema setosum (porcupine sea urchin) in the eastern Mediterranean along more than 1,000 km of coastline. This mortality has since spread to the Red Sea, where it originates.
The suggestion of these two events may pose an emerging threat to tropical ecosystems globally. Moreover, if we link mortality to global warming, widespread outbreaks of marine diseases will likely become more frequent.
13. Removal of CO2 from the ocean
Limiting global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels will require both dramatic emissions reductions and the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Since the oceans contain 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere, attention has focused on ocean-based interventions, including fertilizing them, growing and sinking macroalgae, increasing their alkalinity, and injecting CO2 into rock formations. marine.
We still don't clearly understand the effectiveness of these technologies or the likelihood of harmful environmental consequences in sea water, including reduced oxygen concentrations, macronutrient depletion, harm to marine life, and increased trace metal toxicity.
14. Rising ocean temperatures
The twilight or mesopelagic zone, situated 200 to 1,000 meters beneath the sea surface, makes up a quarter of the ocean's volume. This critical area controls global carbon flows through the biological pump of this gas, which involves transporting organic matter downward and then sequestering CO2.
Predictions suggest that increasing temperatures will decrease the efficiency of the biological carbon pump, lead to higher rates of remineralization of organic matter, and reduce the availability and quality of food for deep-sea organisms.
15. Melting Antarctic ice
The effects of climate change in the southern circulation of the Atlantic, such as reductions in water density and salt concentration, could reduce the abyssal current by 40% by 2050.
These changes can influence nutrient fluxes, alter oxygen levels in the oceans, enhance their ability to absorb CO2 and the global climate, and dramatically affect terrestrial and marine environments.
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