10 keys to understanding current climate situation on Earth

The ‘10 New Insights in Climate Science’ report, endorsed by 67 scientists from 24 countries and presented at COP28, outlines ten key insights for understanding the current state of Earth’s climate. This annual report, a collaboration between Future Earth, Earth League, and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) since 2017, is directed at the global scientific and political community to inform decision-making with science-backed recommendations.

The report raises concerns about the future efficiency of land and ocean carbon sinks, which have historically absorbed about 30% and 25% of CO₂ emissions, respectively. However, there’s growing uncertainty about their capacity to sequester carbon moving forward, potentially due to changes in fire regimes and other factors, as noted by CREAF researcher Marcos Fernández. The report suggests that these natural systems may absorb less carbon than anticipated in the future, posing challenges for climate change mitigation efforts.

Efforts to reduce emissions through nature-based solutions are therefore an immediate priority, especially as they serve to increase complementary carbon sinks and help offset difficult-to-remove emissions. An example of these solutions would be restoring tropical forests or peatlands and wetlands.

10 key messages

• Surpassing the 1.5°C Threshold: Surpassing the additional warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is becoming increasingly likely. Minimizing the duration and impact of exceeding this threshold is crucial to reduce potential losses, damages, and the risk of irreversible changes. Current evidence suggests that we are not effectively mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, making it difficult to avoid surpassing 1.5°C of global warming for at least several decades. Avoiding this would require radical transformations that have not yet been implemented.
• Fossil Fuel Phase-Out: To align with the Paris Agreement’s goals, we need a swift and managed transition away from fossil fuels. The remaining carbon budget is depleting quickly, and it’s imperative for governments and the private sector to halt new fossil fuel projects, phase out existing infrastructure, and rapidly expand renewable energy deployment. Wealthier countries should lead this transition and provide support to lower-income nations. All countries must aim for a fair and just transition, ensuring minimal socioeconomic impacts on vulnerable communities.
• CO2 Removal Systems: Effective policies are needed to scale up carbon dioxide removal through nature. While natural carbon reduction (negative emissions) is necessary for hard-to-eliminate emissions and global temperature reduction, it doesn’t replace the urgent need to reduce human emissions. Combining nature’s mitigation capacity, mainly through forests, with large-scale implementation of other CO2 removal methods is essential, supported by stronger governance and oversight.
• Forests and Oceans as CO2 Sinks: Relying too much on natural carbon sinks is risky due to their uncertain future contribution. Research shows that forests and oceans might absorb less carbon in the future than currently projected. Therefore, reducing emissions through nature-based solutions is an immediate priority, as they help increase carbon sinks and offset hard-to-eliminate emissions.

Climate and biodiversity crises

• International Cooperation: Addressing the interconnected climate and biodiversity crises requires joint governance. The UNFCCC and CBD must align better, with actions like allocating climate finance for nature stewardship and enhancing collaboration between conventions.
• Combined Extreme Weather Events: Preparing for combined events, which involve multiple factors and risks, is crucial for risk management and emergency support. For example, California has experienced combined droughts, heatwaves, and dust storms affecting people and crops.
• Accelerating Glacier Loss: Climate change is causing rapid deglaciation in high mountain areas, threatening water scarcity for downstream populations (around 2 billion people) and increasing risks like flash flooding for mountain communities.
• Immobility in Climate-Exposed Areas: People facing climate risks may be unable to move, and current institutional frameworks don’t adequately address immobility or support these populations’ needs.
• Operationalizing Justice in Climate Adaptation: Incorporating justice dimensions into climate adaptation planning and assessment can enhance resilience and reduce maladaptation risks.
• Reforming Food Systems: Food systems are crucial for climate action, with mitigation options from production to consumption. Interventions must be equitable and inclusive, involving diverse stakeholders at all levels.

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