1 in 12 hospitals worldwide at risk due to climate-related disasters

Hospitals around the globe are facing a new challenge: the impact of climate change. Extreme weather events, intensified by global warming, are threatening the very infrastructure designed to protect health. Cross Dependency Analysis (XDI) recently released a report indicating that without a reduction in fossil fuel emissions, climate change could force the closure of 1 in every 12 hospitals worldwide due to extreme weather events.

The report highlights a stark reality for communities in low- and middle-income countries, which are particularly vulnerable. In the face of hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and other calamities, these communities may find themselves without access to crucial hospital care when it’s needed most.

Dr. Karl Malone, Director of Science and Technology, Cross Dependency Initiative, said, “Climate change is already rapidly impacting the health of people around the world. Imagine what would happen if hospitals closed due to severe weather".

He added, "Our analysis shows that without rapid curbs on fossil fuel use, the risks to global health will increase even further, as thousands of hospitals could be unable to provide services during extreme weather."

The “XDI Global Hospital Infrastructure Physical Climate Risk Report” reveals that without an immediate cessation of fossil fuel use, 1 in 12 hospitals globally could face the threat of closure due to extreme weather events by the century’s end.

Key findings

• Imminent Threats: A staggering 16,245 hospitals are identified as high-risk by 2100, with 71% of these located in low- and middle-income countries.
• Adaptation and Relocation: Hospitals at risk will require significant adaptation, and for many, relocation may be the only viable option.
• Halving the Risk: Limiting global warming to 1.8 degrees Celsius through rapid fossil fuel phase-out could reduce the risk to hospital infrastructure by half compared to high emissions scenarios.
• Geographical Vulnerabilities: Southeast Asia currently has the highest percentage of hospitals at risk, with nearly 1 in 5 facing closure threats by the century’s end due to high emissions.
• South Asia’s Burden: Reflecting its dense population, South Asia has the highest number of at-risk hospitals. By 2050, one-third of the world’s most vulnerable hospitals could be in this region, potentially rising to 5,894 by 2100.
• Coastal and Riverine Risks: Hospitals near beaches and rivers are particularly susceptible. While river and surface water flooding pose increasing risks today, coastal flooding, exacerbated by sea level rise, is projected to become a significant threat by 2100.

The report underscores the urgent need for global action to mitigate climate risks and protect essential healthcare infrastructure. As the climate crisis intensifies, the health of populations, particularly in vulnerable regions, hinges on the resilience of hospitals to withstand the onslaught of extreme weather events.

Prof Nick Watts, director of the Centre for Sustainable Medicine at the National University of Singapore, said, “It is clear that climate change threatens to undermine the stability of the health systems our patients and communities depend on. Whether it results in the closing of health facilities, or a clinic becoming overwhelmed with rising burdens of disease, the human consequences are dire.”

India faces high hospital risk due to climate change

India is facing a significant challenge as climate change intensifies, with a projected 5.7% of hospitals at high risk of closure by 2050 due to extreme weather events. This risk could escalate to affect nearly 1 in 10 hospitals (9.6%) by the end of the century if emissions continue to rise.

The country stands out in the study, with 5,120 hospitals identified as high risk by 2100, the highest number among the 50 countries analyzed. With a total of 53,473 hospitals evaluated, India’s healthcare infrastructure is particularly vulnerable, followed by Russia with 13,596 hospitals.

"The most obvious thing for hospitals to dramatically reduce this risk and keep communities safe is to reduce emissions," said Dr. Karl Malone.

Dr. Karl Malone highlights the critical need for hospitals to mitigate this risk and ensure community safety by advocating for a reduction in emissions. The data underscores the urgency for India to address the climate crisis and protect its healthcare facilities from the growing threat of extreme weather events.

The XDI report provides a comprehensive analysis of the vulnerability of over 200,000 hospitals worldwide to six climate change threats: coastal flooding, river flooding, surface water flooding, wildfire, extreme wind, and cyclonic wind. It assesses the potential physical damage to hospital buildings and evaluates how different emissions scenarios could mitigate these risks. This timely analysis is set to be a focal point at the upcoming COP28 United Nations Climate Conference, scheduled from November 30 to December 12 in the UAE.

Dr Malone said, "Governments have a duty to ensure the continued delivery of vital services. For individual governments not to act on this information, or for the global community not to support governments in need, a threat to the well-being of their citizens This is gross negligence."

Calls for action

Experts emphasize that hospitals require data to effectively mitigate and adapt their health services, ensuring minimal disruption from climate change. Karl Mallon, XDI’s Director of Science and Technology, highlights the release of risk assessments for over 200,000 hospitals worldwide, equipping hospital administrators and governments with essential climate data to prepare for extreme weather events.

Renzo Guinto, a doctor specializing in planetary and global health in Southeast Asia, regards the report as a significant warning for the health sector. He insists that the healthcare community can no longer overlook climate change as a threat to healthcare provision and health systems operations. Guinto urges better planning for the construction of future hospitals and the relocation of existing ones.

Mallon suggests that measures like raising hospital floors and reinforcing roofs could combat flooding and extreme winds. However, he acknowledges that relocating hospitals away from rivers and coasts to higher ground, though more expensive, could be a more effective solution.

He also stresses the responsibility of governments to their populations in ensuring the delivery of critical services. Mallon warns that failing to act on this information, or the global community’s failure to support governments in need, would represent a blatant disregard for the wellbeing of their citizens.

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