Extreme cold in MP, but warmer winter likely across India: IMD

Madhya Pradesh is experiencing extreme cold, with temperatures as low as 1.8°C in Pachmarhi, the state's coldest location. The weather department issued a cold wave alert for 16 districts, including Bhopal, Indore, Jabalpur, and Ujjain, for the next four days. Despite these conditions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts a warmer winter for most of the country, including central India.

The state has witnessed a dramatic drop in temperatures. Pachmarhi experienced an overnight dip of 1.7°C, recording 1.8°C on Tuesday night. Bhopal registered a low of 6.9°C, Indore 8.6°C, Gwalior 6°C, and Jabalpur 6.5°C. Senior meteorologist Dr. Divya E. Surendran attributed this cold wave to specific atmospheric conditions.

"A Western disturbance is active in West-North India. Jet stream winds are blowing at 240 km/h at 12.6 km altitude, contributing to the severe cold in Madhya Pradesh," she said. Snowfall in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Ladakh is amplifying the chill.

This year's December cold has broken trends, as severe chills have typically been observed in the latter half. However, the IMD reassured that extreme cold conditions may not persist throughout the season.

A major contributor to the erratic weather is the prolonged dry spell across the country during the post-monsoon period. IMD data highlights that November rainfall was the third lowest since 2001, with a nationwide deficit of nearly 55%. Even southern India, where the northeast monsoon is active, recorded a shortfall of close to 38%.

IMD head Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained that the absence of Western Disturbances (WDs) in November played a key role. “There were no western disturbances affecting north India in November, leading to dry conditions. If this trend continues, temperatures will likely remain high in north India,” he said. Mohapatra noted that while La Niña conditions are expected, their impact may be felt in a couple of months.

For the upcoming winter (December-February), the IMD has forecast milder-than-normal day and night temperatures across most of India, with fewer extreme cold days. Minimum (night) temperatures are expected to be above normal, while maximum (day) temperatures will likely exceed the usual, except in southern India.

“This time, IMD’s three-month winter outlook predicts above-normal maximum temperatures for central India, including Madhya Pradesh,” said Dr. Praveen Kumar, a scientist at the Regional Meteorological Centre. “Cold waves won’t significantly impact this winter. Most days will have abnormal temperatures compared to past years.”

Dr. Kumar said, “This winter will have significantly fewer colder days. December is predicted to have above-normal temperatures, which aligns with our climate models and past observations.”

IMD data highlights the impact of climate change on India’s weather. November’s maximum temperatures have been consistently higher, with the five warmest Novembers in the last 25 years. These trends reflect global warming’s effects on India’s climate, leading to unseasonal variations like warmer winters and extended dry spells.

Dr. Kumar discussed the influence of Western disturbances. “Western disturbances, which cause heavy snowfall in the Himalayas, can induce cold waves in northern Madhya Pradesh when they pass through. However, this season, their frequency and intensity appear to be lower. This will contribute to milder winters overall,” he said.

The IMD’s winter outlook predicts milder conditions ahead, but a cold wave in Madhya Pradesh contrasts this. Senior meteorologist Dr. Surendran noted that “the December cold has intensified earlier than expected due to atmospheric factors and snowfall in northern India.” However, she and Dr. Kumar emphasised that colder days are unlikely to dominate the season.

The IMD predicts December conditions will mirror the warming trend, with night temperatures remaining above normal, especially in central and southern India. Meanwhile, Madhya Pradesh residents brace for more icy days as the cold wave persists.

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