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Data: Wheat in Madhya Pradesh, stagnant yield and crop losses

The increase in production area in Madhya Pradesh is not attributed to the increase in the yield of the wheat produced over the years with stagnant yield.

By Jyotsna Richhariya
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Copyright Ground Report

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Madhya Pradesh is the second largest wheat contributor in the country. Around 70% of the state population depends on agriculture for livelihood. According to the state agricultural department, Madhya Pradesh saw a 33% dip in wheat production in 2024 compared to 2023, the highest in India. It’s the only state where procurement decreased from 7.1 million metric tons (MT) in 2023 to 4.8 MT in 2024. 

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Data analysis of production, yield and area of wheat in the state reveals a worrisome picture. Ground report analyses the data of the last 23 years to understand the situation of wheat production in Madhya Pradesh.

Wheat production in M.P.

Since 2001, Madhya Pradesh has gradually grown the production of wheat with significant ups and downs. However, in 2020 the state became the top producer ahead of Punjab with 371.98 lakh metric tonnes. It then declined to 349.8 lakh metric tonnes in 2023.

Climate change severely affects farmers in Madhya Pradesh, a central Indian state reliant on agriculture. We earlier reported on the impacts of climate change on agriculture. This year, many farmers in Madhya Pradesh lost their rabi wheat produce due to untimely rainfall and hail storms.  

Wheat Production Area and Yield

As compared to the largest wheat-producing state of Punjab, the area under wheat cultivation in Madhya Pradesh has grown exponentially. MP’s area under wheat has successively grown more than double from 41 LH in 2007-08 to around 97 LH in 2022-23.

Meanwhile, an area in Punjab under wheat cultivation has remained around 35 lakh hectares (LH) every year since over the last decade. While the area under wheat was 35.26 LH in 2021-22 in Punjab, with a slight decline, it was 35.17 LH last year. Even when compared to 2001 it has grown only 1 LH approximately.

However, increase in production area in Madhya Pradesh is not attributed along with the increase in the yield of the wheat produce. Despite being one of the largest area under wheat production the yield of the produce is much lower when compared to Punjab.

Although M.P. surpassed Punjab in 2020 in wheat production with its almost seven times area under production, Punjab is still miles ahead in per hectare productivity. The productivity or yield of wheat from Punjab is around 52 per cent more than MP, per hectare. From 15.71 per cent a decade ago, MP’s contribution in the central pool increased to 33.98 per cent in 2020-21. However, the stagnant productivity coupled with lower procurement this year has left the state much below its target.

The analysis reveals an almost stagnant yield of wheat produced in MP, restricting it around 3.5 tonnes per hectare since 2019. In 2022-23, the wheat yield in MP was 3.58 tonnes per hectare, while it was 4.71 tonnes/ha in Punjab.

Also, the market noted the highest spike of Rs.150 in over a decade of Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat from Rs. 2125 last year, to Rs. 2275 for 2024-25. 

The dynamics of MSP

This increase in wheat MSP is the highest since 2015-16. The previous increase was in the range of Rs 100-110 per quintal announced for marketing seasons between 2017 and 2024.

Though the reasons are said to be politically motivated, as the MSP announcement came just before the elections. Many farmers in the state did not register this time, thinking that private traders and flour millers would pay more than the MSP.  In Madhya Pradesh, farmers generally depend on decentralised procurement where state governments or their agencies procure, store, and distribute wheat against the Center’s allocation for the targeted public distribution system and other welfare schemes while in Punjab the majority of the produce is sold through Mandis under APMC Act. In March, the MP government also announced a bonus of Rs. 125 per quintal of wheat for farmers, totalling it to Rs. 2,400. 

Farmers lacking the market power to influence the prices of their produce, largely depend on selling at prevailing supply-and-demand-determined rates. Irrespective of the state government’s flexibility with MSP, farmers remain sceptical. For example, in 2022, The number of farmers registered to sell wheat to state agencies in Madhya Pradesh dropped down by approximately 17% because of the rush for wheat by private players amidst the Ukraine-Russia war. Approximately 1.98 million farmers sought to sell wheat to government agencies until March 10 (the last date for registration) in 2022, while it was around 2.4 million in 2021 over the same period.

Altogether, farmers strive for better prices with the risk of crop losses due to extreme weather events in Madhya Pradesh. This analysis also highlights the grim situation of stagnant yield per hectare as compared to other states.  

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