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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday released 'Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Forecast Outlook for September 2023'.
IMD's press conference stated that August 2023, has been one of the driest Augusts in India since 1901, with a rainfall deficit of over 33 per cent. This information has raised concerns about the possibility of a huge deficit in the monsoon season as well.
The Meteorological Department has stated that the average rainfall over the entire country during September 2023 is likely to be normal, i.e., it will range from 91-109 per cent of LPA. The countrywide LPA of rainfall during the month of September is approximately 167.9 mm, as per the data from 1971 to 2020.
The Meteorological Department suggests that many areas of Northeast India, adjoining East India, Himalayan foothills, and some areas of East-Central and South Peninsular India may receive above normal rainfall.
The majority of the country is anticipated to receive below-average rainfall, except for the regions mentioned above.
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September temperature varies by location
On the other hand, if we look at the temperature forecast for the month of September, some parts of south peninsular India and some areas of west central India are likely to experience below normal maximum temperatures. In the majority of the country, except for these regions, the maximum temperature will be higher than usual.
However, the minimum temperature may stay below normal in parts of far north India. Except for certain areas of North India, most parts of the country are expected to have above-normal minimum temperatures.
Effect of El Nino on weather conditions
According to the Meteorological Department, sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and Indian Ocean are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with weak El Nino conditions.
MMCFS and other global model forecasts suggest that El Niño conditions are likely to intensify further and continue till early next year, according to the latest forecast.
At the same time, apart from ENSO conditions in the Pacific, other factors such as sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean also influence the Indian monsoon.
Currently, borderline positive IOD conditions are undergoing in the Indian Ocean, and the most recent MMCFS and other global model forecasts indicate an anticipation for the strengthening of positive IOD conditions in the upcoming months.
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