November's warmer-than-normal weather, no cold effects: IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), led by Director General Dr. Mrityunjay Mohapatra, held a virtual conference on October 31 to discuss the upcoming weather patterns for November. The conference highlighted the impact of El Nino on the Northeast Monsoon, resulting in reduced rainfall in October, particularly in Northeast and Western India.

Warmer November, No Cold: IMD

During mid-October, a western disturbance caused snowfall in higher regions of North India and moderate rain in lower areas. Two cyclonic storms, ‘Tej’ and ‘Hamun’, formed in October, primarily affecting Mizoram with heavy rain. The overall temperatures in October were above normal.

For November, Dr. Mahapatra predicts good north-east monsoon rains in the first week, along with rain and snowfall in hilly areas due to active Western Disturbance. Rainfall is expected to be normal over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe, South Interior Karnataka, i.e., Southern Peninsula of India. This can range from 77 to 123 percent of the long period average (LPA).

The local distribution across the country in November 2023 shows above normal rainfall likely over some areas of southern Peninsula of India, most parts of northwest India, many parts of east-central, east and north-east India. There are chances of below normal rainfall in the remaining parts of the country.

In terms of temperature, normal to above normal temperatures are expected over parts of northwest India and central India during November 2023. Maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal in most parts of the country. Similarly, the minimum temperature is also predicted to be above normal in most parts of the country.

Regarding sea surface temperatures (SSTs), moderate El Niño conditions are currently observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are projected to persist throughout the upcoming season. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the equatorial Indian Ocean but are expected to weaken during the coming months.

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