October 2024 Weather Update: Monsoon Withdrawal and Rainfall Forecast

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its latest weather forecast, emphasizing notable changes in the weather in the forthcoming weeks. As of October 15, 2024, the Southwest Monsoon has officially receded from the entire nation, allowing the Northeast Monsoon to initiate its precipitation activities across southeastern peninsular India.

Present Meteorological Conditions

The IMD indicates that a low-pressure system is expected to develop over the Central Bay of Bengal about on October 22, 2024. This system is projected to progress northwestward and strengthen into a Depression by October 24, 2024. This breakthrough is significant as it would affect rainfall patterns in multiple parts of India.

Precipitation Forecasts

Week 1 (October 17-23, 2024):

• South Peninsular India: A broad area is expected to get light to moderate rainfall over Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, and Karnataka. Light to moderate rainfall is anticipated to be scattered to fairly widespread in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, and Telangana.
• Heavy Rainfall Alerts: Isolated intense precipitation is anticipated in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal on October 18, 20, and 21; South Interior Karnataka from October 17 to 22; and Kerala on October 17, 22, and 23. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, and certain regions of Karnataka are likely to encounter substantial rains on October 17.

Week 2 (October 24-30, 2024):

Over eastern and nearby northeastern India during the first half of the week, there will likely be sporadic to moderately extensive rainfall along with a few isolated torrential downpours.

A western disturbance is anticipated to deliver sporadic to very extensive rainfall and snowfall across the Western Himalayan Region, accompanied by light isolated precipitation over the adjacent plains.

• Regional Rainfall Forecast Normal to Above Normal Precipitation: Predominantly, central, eastern, and southern peninsular India are expected to get normal to above-normal rainfall.
• Anticipated Below-Normal Precipitation: Conversely, below-normal precipitation is projected in several regions of the country, specifically in northwest, east, central, and northeast India, where no substantial rainfall is predicted for the week.

Advisories and Safeguards

The IMD has issued alerts for localized intense rainfall in multiple areas, urging inhabitants to stay alert and ready for possible flooding and associated risks. The public is urged to remain informed about the latest forecasts and to comply with any advisories issued by local authorities.

With the arrival of the Northeast Monsoon, the IMD is diligently monitoring the evolving meteorological patterns. The forthcoming weeks are pivotal for agricultural operations and water resource management nationwide. Stakeholders are encouraged to be informed and implement required measures to alleviate the effects of intense rainfall.

For additional updates, please consult the IMD's official communications and local weather advisories.

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