Monsoon hits Kerala early, sets 16-year record

The Southwest Monsoon reached Kerala on May 24, arriving eight days earlier than its usual onset date of June 1. This marks the earliest monsoon arrival in the state since 2009, when it began on May 23.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed the early onset on Saturday morning. It stated that weather conditions had become favourable and that the monsoon had officially set in over the Kerala coast.

IMD had earlier predicted that the monsoon could reach Kerala within the next two days, and the forecast proved accurate. The early arrival is likely to impact agricultural planning, water resource management, and the broader economy in the coming weeks.

With the onset, the IMD also issued warnings for heavy rainfall. Kerala, coastal and south interior Karnataka, and the Konkan-Goa region are expected to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms, lightning, and wind speeds of up to 50 kmph are also likely between May 23 and May 29.

This year’s onset stands out in a historical context. While the earliest ever recorded monsoon in Kerala was on May 18, 1918, the latest was on June 18, 1972. In recent years, the monsoon onset in Kerala has fluctuated—arriving on May 30 in 2024, June 8 in 2023, and May 29 in 2022. This irregular pattern highlights the variability of the monsoon system.

Weather alerts by date and district for May 24 to May 27

The IMD said the monsoon is likely to advance further into the South Arabian Sea, parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, the central and south Bay of Bengal, and parts of the northeastern states in the coming days.

At the same time, a depression has formed in the east-central Arabian Sea, near the south Konkan coast. It is expected to cross the coastline between Ratnagiri and Dapoli by noon on Saturday.

While the early onset is promising, weather experts caution against linking it directly to the success of the full monsoon season. An early start in Kerala does not guarantee uniform or timely rainfall across the country.

IMD’s seasonal forecast, released in April, predicted above-normal rainfall for 2025. It also noted the absence of El Niño, which is often associated with weak monsoons. Still, experts say that rainfall distribution and intensity over the next few months will be the real test.

The early monsoon has raised hopes—but it’s the performance over time that will matter most.

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