Busy Hurricane season ahead: How staff cuts threaten forecasts

The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be busier than usual this year, with 13 to 19 named storms predicted, including six to ten hurricanes. Scientists warn that staffing cuts at the US weather agency NOAA may weaken storm tracking and forecasts.

Warmer sea temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions are fueling this forecast. Unlike last year, this season will likely see fewer storms but still above the long-term average.

However, many experts worry that layoffs under President Trump’s administration have left NOAA understaffed ahead of the hurricane season. Matt Lanza, a Houston-based meteorologist, said, “Less data means a worse forecast.”

Zack Labe, a climate scientist recently laid off by NOAA, added, “The people remaining are trying their absolute hardest, but reduced staff leads to burnout.”

These cuts risk disrupting “hurricane hunter” flights—planes that fly into storms to collect critical data—and may reduce important weather observations like balloon launches.

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, warned, “It is a growing problem that could become life threatening during severe weather events.” He also noted, “Accurate hurricane tracking depends on global data; these cuts threaten that balance.”

NOAA’s acting administrator Laura Grimm defended the agency, saying, “We have the best scientists and remain committed to protecting the public.”

Despite the staffing challenges, forecasters expect a busy season due to warm ocean waters and the likely absence of El Niño, which usually suppresses hurricane formation.

The coming months will test NOAA’s ability to deliver accurate forecasts amid these cuts. Scientists stress the importance of restoring staff to avoid risking public safety.

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